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Communicable disease surveillance through predictive analysis: A comparative analysis of prediction models

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  • Villi Dane M. Go

    (MarinduqueState College)

Abstract

Effective prediction and surveillance of communicable diseases are vital for public health management. This study leveraged machine learning algorithms to predict disease occurrences in the Province of Marinduque, focusing on Hand Foot Mouth Disease, Dengue, Typhoid, Influenza, Chikungunya, Rabies, Measles, Meningitis, Hepatitis, and Acute Bloody Diarrhea using data from 2015 to 2019. The monthly morbidity rate served as the criterion variable. Machine learning models, including Random Forest, Logistic Regression, SVM, and k-Nearest Neighbors, were employed. Material and methods encompassed data collection, preprocessing, feature selection, and model evaluation. Results revealed Random Forest as the most accurate algorithm, with implications for proactive disease management and resource allocation. This research enhances disease prediction methodologies and contributes to public health surveillance.

Suggested Citation

  • Villi Dane M. Go, 2023. "Communicable disease surveillance through predictive analysis: A comparative analysis of prediction models," HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE - ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY, vol. 13(2), pages 45-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:bjw:techen:v:13:y:2023:i:2:p:45-54
    DOI: 10.46223/HCMCOUJS.tech.en.13.2.2944.2023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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