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A systemic architecture for the antifragile development of ukraine’s agro-industrial complex through strategic planningof enterprises’ foreign economic activity in the context of global market shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Anastasiia OLISHEVSKA

    (Kherson Economic and Legal Institute)

  • Damir KULISH

    (Kherson Economic and Legal Institute)

Abstract

The article substantiates the theoretical and methodological foundations for forming a systemic architecture of the antifragile development of Ukraine's agro-industrial complex under structural shocks in global food markets. Taleb's concept of antifragility is adapted to the agricultural context: unlike resilience and adaptability, antifragility implies a positive response to volatility – the system does not merely recover from a shock but acquires new competencies. The relevance of the study is confirmed by statistical evidence: in 2022–2023, Ukraine's agro-exports declined from USD 27.8 to 22.4 billion, FDI in the agro-industrial sector dropped by 34%, and logistics costs increased 2.3-fold. The article identifies four interrelated components of the antifragile development architecture: risk diagnostics, adaptive resource provision, market and logistics transformation, and institutional recovery. Particular attention is given to foreign economic activity mechanisms: export market diversification, EU standards harmonisation, FDI attraction, and trade diplomacy. A scenario model is proposed encompassing inertial, adaptive, and modernisation trajectories.

Suggested Citation

  • Anastasiia OLISHEVSKA & Damir KULISH, 2026. "A systemic architecture for the antifragile development of ukraine’s agro-industrial complex through strategic planningof enterprises’ foreign economic activity in the context of global market shocks," Economic Synergy, Higher Educational Institution Academician Yuriy Bugay International Scientific & Technical University, issue 1, pages 160-173.
    • Handle: RePEc:bja:isteus:y:2026:i:1:p:160-173
    DOI: 10.53920/ES-2026-1-11
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    JEL classification:

    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • M11 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Production Management
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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