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Global Risk Appetite and EMBI-Colombia: Evidence on a Structural Break and the Fiscal Policy Role

Author

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  • Juan Manuel Julio

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  • Ignacio Lozano
  • Ligia Alba Melo

Abstract

This paper shows that the Colombian sovereign risk (EMBI-Colombia) is mainly determined by international investors’ risk appetite, whose response is non-linear and depends on the government fiscal stance. It is also shown that the relationship between these variables experienced an important structural break in the second half of the 2000’s, apparently associated to the global financial crisis and the improvement in the local macro-fundamentals. The consequences of these findings might be particularly important for this country, as they help to explain both the lower financial costs of public debt as the local market less uncertainty to external shocks, which have been observed in recent times.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Manuel Julio & Ignacio Lozano & Ligia Alba Melo, 2013. "Global Risk Appetite and EMBI-Colombia: Evidence on a Structural Break and the Fiscal Policy Role," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 31(72), pages 67-73, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:31:y:2013:i:72:p:67-73
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.7205
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/Espe.7205
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2016. "Inflation targeting credibility and sovereign risk: evidence from Colombia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 984-990, September.
    2. Javier Guillermo Gómez-Pineda & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, 2016. "Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices: An Application to Colombia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-40, January-j.
    3. Javier Guillermo Gómez-Pineda & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, 2016. "Riesgo sistémico, demanda agregada y precios de los productos básicos: aplicación a Colombia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-43, enero-jun.
    4. Hernando Vargas & Andrés González & Ignacio Lozano, 2015. "Macroeconomic Gains from Structural Fiscal Policy Adjustments: The Case of Colombia," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 39-81, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Country risk; Fiscal policy; Financial Markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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