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Evaluación de políticas públicas para la reducción de la criminalidad en Medellín: una aproximación con dinámica de sistemas

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  • Santiago Arango
  • John Jairo Prado
  • Isaac Dyner

Abstract

Medellín ha sido una de las ciudades más violentas del mundo, pero la criminalidad ha venido reduciéndose en los últimos años. La continuidad del sendero descendiente depende de la efectividad de las políticas públicas. Esta investigación evalúa políticas públicas, tanto preventivas como punitivas, usando un modelo en dinámica de sistemas que considera la carrera criminal y la teoría económica del crimen. Los ejercicios de simulación sugieren la necesidad de reducir el crecimiento de la población susceptible de convertirse en criminales, aumentar los efectivos de la fuerza pública e incrementar la duración promedio de las sentencias. Esta aproximación metodológica puede ser extrapolada a casos similares de los sistemas sociales

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago Arango & John Jairo Prado & Isaac Dyner, 2009. "Evaluación de políticas públicas para la reducción de la criminalidad en Medellín: una aproximación con dinámica de sistemas," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 27(60), pages 80-109, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:27:y:2009:i:60:p:80-109
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.6003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    3. Steven D. Levitt, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 319-351.
    4. Gaviria, Alejandro, 1998. "Increasing Returns and the Evolution of Violent Crime: The Case of Columbia," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6x42726z, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    5. Gaviria, Alejandro, 2000. "Increasing returns and the evolution of violent crime: the case of Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 1-25, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    criminalidad; carrera criminal; simulación; dinámica de sistemas; pensamiento sistémico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty

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