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The impact of drought on agricultural production in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Isabel Molina Vileya

    (Banco de España)

  • Matías J. Pacce

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

Rationale Climate change could exacerbate the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events, increasingly affecting crop yields. This article analyses the effects of drought on the production of a selection of key crops for Spanish agriculture. Takeaways •Granular climate data and province-level data on agricultural land and production are used for the period 2000-23 to estimate the relationship between drought and the yields of a selection of crops in Spain. •The results obtained show that the adverse impact of water scarcity on crop yields differs across crops. Specifically, the impact was found to be greater on wheat, barley and olives (largely rainfed crops) than on oranges and maize (predominantly irrigated crops). •In 2022 and 2023, Spain experienced prolonged periods of water scarcity. This is estimated to have reduced wheat and barley yields by between 20% and 30%, on average, and olive yields by at least 10%.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabel Molina Vileya & Matías J. Pacce, 2025. "The impact of drought on agricultural production in Spain," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2025/Q2.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:journl:y:2025:i:02:n:07
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/39768
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Drought; crop yields; agricultural production; SPEI;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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