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The Role of economic variables and credit portfolio attributes for estimating discretionary loan loss provisions in Brazilian banks

  • José Alves Dantas

    (University of Brasília)

  • Otávio Ribeiro de Medeiros

    (University of Brasília)

  • Paulo Roberto Barbosa Lustosa

    (University of Brasília)

The study assesses whether incorporating macroeconomic variables and attributes of the loan portfolio improves the specification of models designed to identify management discretion in making loan loss provisions by banks, considering the standards issued by regulatory agencies. The empirical tests confirm the consistency of the proposed model based on the expected signs of the explanatory variable’s parameters and their statistical significance. These results were confronted with those of other models found in the literature by comparing the models’ adjusted R2s, by applying Vuong’s (1989) model selection test, by using an F test for nested models, and by analyzing the persistence of the non-discretionary components of loan loss provisions, which shows that the incorporation of macroeconomic variables and attributes of the loan portfolio improves the empirical investigation of discretion practiced by banks.

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Article provided by Fucape Business School in its journal Brazilian Business Review.

Volume (Year): 10 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 65-90

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Handle: RePEc:bbz:fcpbbr:v:10:y:2013:i:4:p:65-90
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  1. Dechow, Patricia M., 1994. "Accounting earnings and cash flows as measures of firm performance : The role of accounting accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-42, July.
  2. Stephanou, Constantinos, 2010. "Rethinking market discipline in banking : lessons from the financial crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5227, The World Bank.
  3. Kanagaretnam, Kiridaran & Lim, Chee Yeow & Lobo, Gerald J., 2010. "Auditor reputation and earnings management: International evidence from the banking industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2318-2327, October.
  4. Robert P. Gray & Frank L. Clarke, 2004. "A Methodology for Calculating the Allowance for Loan Losses in Commercial Banks," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 40(3), pages 321-341.
  5. Ahmed, Anwer S. & Takeda, Carolyn & Thomas, Shawn, 1999. "Bank loan loss provisions: a reexamination of capital management, earnings management and signaling effects," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, November.
  6. Kanagaretnam, Kiridaran & Krishnan, Gopal V. & Lobo, Gerald J., 2009. "Is the market valuation of banks' loan loss provision conditional on auditor reputation?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1039-1047, June.
  7. Shrieves, Ronald E. & Dahl, Drew, 2003. "Discretionary accounting and the behavior of Japanese banks under financial duress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1219-1243, July.
  8. Subramanyam, K. R., 1996. "The pricing of discretionary accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-3), pages 249-281, October.
  9. McNichols, Maureen F., 2000. "Research design issues in earnings management studies," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4-5), pages 313-345.
  10. Kanagaretnam, Kiridaran & Lobo, Gerald J & Mathieu, Robert, 2003. " Managerial Incentives for Income Smoothing through Bank Loan Loss Provisions," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 63-80, January.
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