Can we measure the impact of new navigation procedure implementation? A simultaneous equations model approach

The Next Generation Air Transportation System or ‘NextGen’ is a series of programmes designed to transition the National Airspace System from a radar-based, air traffic controlled system to a satellite-based, air traffic managed system. NextGen programmes aim to improve the efficiency and predictability of gate-to-gate operations. They are also designed to support capacity management at large, congested airports and to foster better access in and out of busy metropolitan areas where the proximity of commercial and general aviation airports may create some challenges for air traffic controllers in approach and departure paths. This paper measures changes in four endogenous delay-related variables based on flight plan (on-time gate arrival, airborne, taxi-out and block delays) that affect different phases of a flight (arrival, en route, surface movement and gate-to-gate) when ceiling and visibility are in instrument meteorological conditions. Because of the interdependence of the variables in explaining performance outcomes, this study compares an ordinary least squares model with two-stage and three-stage least squares models to evaluate changes at Houston George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) after the implementation of new procedures and routes on 29th May, 2014. Average excess miles flown and gate arrival delays represented the impact multipliers that affected the most the four endogenous variables before and after the implementation of new procedures and routes.