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Mean-Variance Versus Mean-Expected Shortfall Models: An Application to Wheat Variety Selection

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  • Sukcharoen, Kunlapath
  • Leatham, David

Abstract

One of the most popular risk management strategies for wheat producers is varietal diversification. Previous studies proposed a mean-variance model as a tool to optimally select wheat varieties. However, this study suggests that the mean–expected shortfall (ES) model (which is based on a downside risk measure) may be a better tool because variance is not a correct risk measure when the distribution of wheat variety yields is multivariate nonnormal. Results based on data from Texas Blacklands confirm our conjecture that the mean-ES framework performs better in term of selecting wheat varieties than the mean-variance method.

Suggested Citation

  • Sukcharoen, Kunlapath & Leatham, David, 2016. "Mean-Variance Versus Mean-Expected Shortfall Models: An Application to Wheat Variety Selection," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 48(2), May.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:349132
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.349132
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    1. Ribera, Luis A. & Outlaw, Joe L. & Richardson, James W. & Silva, Jorge A. da & Bryant, Henry L., 2007. "Mitigating the Fuel and Feed Effects of Increased Ethanol Production Utilizing Sugarcane," Biofuels, Food and Feed Tradeoffs Conference, April 12-13, 2007, St, Louis, Missouri 313700, Farm Foundation.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Muckenhaupt & Martin Hoesli & Bing Zhu, 2025. "Listed Real Estate as an Inflation Hedge Across Regimes," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 189-239, February.

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