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The Impact of Price Variability on Cash/Futures Market Relationships: Implications for Market Efficiency and Price Discovery

Author

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  • Arnade, Carlos
  • Hoffman, Linwood

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between cash and futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal from 1992 to 2013. Error correction models are estimated for the prices of both commodities. An exogenous measure of price variability is included in both models to determine if variability increases the speed with which cash and futures prices return to their long-run equilibrium relationship. This is used to measure the impact of price variability on short-run market efficiency and the price discovery process. The findings indicate that the level of price variability influences market adjustment rates and the price discovery process.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnade, Carlos & Hoffman, Linwood, 2015. "The Impact of Price Variability on Cash/Futures Market Relationships: Implications for Market Efficiency and Price Discovery," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(4), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:349125
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.349125
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    2. Joseph P. Janzen & Michael K. Adjemian, 2017. "Estimating the Location of World Wheat Price Discovery," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1188-1207.
    3. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Farhangdoost, Sara & Hoffman, Linwood A. & Adam, Brian D., 2023. "Forecasting the U.S. season-average farm price of corn: Derivation of an alternative futures-based forecasting model," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    4. Janzen, Joseph P. & Adjemian, Michael K., 2016. "Estimating the Location of World Wheat Price Determination," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235838, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Kim, Man-Keun & Tejeda, Hernan & Wright, Jeffrey, 2016. "Price Discovery in the U.S. Milled Rice Markets using a Cluster Analysis and Tournament," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235725, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Nigatu, Getachew & Adjemian, Michael K., 2016. "The U.S. Role in the Price Determination of Major Agricultural Commodities," 2017 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 6-8, 2017, Chicago, Illinois 250119, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Joshua G. Maples & B. Wade Brorsen, 2022. "Handling the discontinuity in futures prices when time series modeling of commodity cash and futures prices," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(2), pages 139-152, June.
    8. Teresa Vollmer & Helmut Herwartz & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, 2020. "Measuring price discovery in the European wheat market using the partial cointegration approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(3), pages 1173-1200.
    9. Mehdi Arzandeh & Julieta Frank, 2019. "Price Discovery in Agricultural Futures Markets: Should We Look beyond the Best Bid‐Ask Spread?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 101(5), pages 1482-1498, October.
    10. Narjiss Araba & Alain François-Heude, 2019. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the French wheat market," Post-Print hal-03088859, HAL.
    11. Dimpfl, Thomas & Flad, Michael & Jung, Robert C., 2017. "Price discovery in agricultural commodity markets in the presence of futures speculation," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 50-62.
    12. Kwangwon Ahn & Hanwool Jang & Minhyuk Jeong & Sungbin Sohn, 2025. "The impact of futures trade on the informational efficiency of the U.S. REIT market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, December.
    13. Byung Min Soon & Jarrett Whistance, 2019. "Seasonal Soybean Price Transmission between the U.S. and Brazil Using the Seasonal Regime-Dependent Vector Error Correction Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-9, September.
    14. Mehdi Arzandeh & Julieta Frank, 2019. "Price Discovery in Agricultural Futures Markets: Should We Look beyond the Best Bid-Ask Spread?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1482-1498.
    15. A.N. Vijayakumar, 2023. "Declining trade interest in Indian commodity derivatives: a survey-based study on cardamom futures contract," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 28(3), pages 333-346.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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