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Common Trends, Common Cycles, and Price Relationships in the International Fiber Market

Author

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  • Fadiga, Mohamadou L.
  • Misra, Sukant K.

Abstract

A multivariate unobserved component model was applied to identify common movements among cotton, wool, rayon, and polyester world prices. Two common stochastic trends and cycles govern the stochastic behaviors of price fluctuations in the world fiber market. These unobserved components have important implications as they can help in the design of more efficient commodity programs to smooth terms of trade shocks, especially in developing countries. The study found the effect of inventory adjustments on world cotton price is diminishing, which indicates that speculative behaviors in the world fiber market are less prevalent than previously thought.

Suggested Citation

  • Fadiga, Mohamadou L. & Misra, Sukant K., 2007. "Common Trends, Common Cycles, and Price Relationships in the International Fiber Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(01), April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:8596
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8596
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    Cited by:

    1. Jane Haltmaier, 2011. "Empirical estimation of trend and cyclical export elasticities," International Finance Discussion Papers 1030, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Mutuc, Maria & Pan, Suwen & Hudson, Darren, 2011. "Response of Cotton to Oil Price Shocks," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 12(2), June.
    3. Mohamadou Fadiga & Yongsheng Wang, 2009. "A multivariate unobserved component analysis of US housing market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(1), pages 13-26, January.

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