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How Many (Half) Moons? Measuring Technology Adoption from the Sky and on the Ground

Author

Listed:
  • Jenny C. Aker
  • Jennifer Burney
  • Alison Campion
  • B. Kelsey Jack
  • Chuan Liao

Abstract

Measuring technology adoption is central to evaluating development policies, yet standard approaches face trade-offs between accuracy, cost, and scalability. Using data from a randomized controlled trial in Niger, we compare four methods for measuring adoption of demi-lunes, an agricultural technology: direct observation, survey self-reports, manual satellite-based observation, and satellite imagery with machine learning (SIML). Treating direct observation as ground truth, we quantify measurement error on extensive and intensive margins and assess trade-offs between costs and error at project and policy scales. We find that self-reports perform well at both scales, while satellite-based methods scale cheaply but generate significant measurement error.

Suggested Citation

  • Jenny C. Aker & Jennifer Burney & Alison Campion & B. Kelsey Jack & Chuan Liao, 2026. "How Many (Half) Moons? Measuring Technology Adoption from the Sky and on the Ground," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 116, pages 173-177, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:116:y:2026:p:173-177
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20261091
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

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