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Simplicity and Probability Weighting in Choice under Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Drew Fudenberg
  • Indira Puri

Abstract

We present a speculative application of model estimates from Fudenberg and Puri (2021) to prize-linked savings in South Africa. The models used include one combining simplicity theory (Puri 2018, 2022), a preference for lotteries with fewer possible outcomes, with cumulative prospect theory. The results and those of prior literature indicate that both simplicity and probability weighting have a role to play in understanding behavior in choice under risk. We discuss the properties of these models and their implications for behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Drew Fudenberg & Indira Puri, 2022. "Simplicity and Probability Weighting in Choice under Risk," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 112, pages 421-425, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:112:y:2022:p:421-25
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20221091
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    Cited by:

    1. Brice Corgnet & Roberto Hernán González, 2023. "On The Appeal Of Complexity," Working Papers 2312, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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