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In Praise of Confidence Intervals

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  • David Romer

Abstract

Most empirical papers in economics focus on two aspects of their results: whether the estimates are statistically significantly different from zero and the interpretation of the point estimates. This focus obscures important information about the implications of the results for economically interesting hypotheses about values of the parameters other than zero, and in some cases, about the strength of the evidence against values of zero. This limitation can be overcome by reporting confidence intervals for papers' main estimates and discussing their economic interpretation.

Suggested Citation

  • David Romer, 2020. "In Praise of Confidence Intervals," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 55-60, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:110:y:2020:p:55-60
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201059
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    1. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2019. "Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, May.
    2. Card, David, 2001. "Estimating the Return to Schooling: Progress on Some Persistent Econometric Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1127-1160, September.
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    2. Antoine Bozio & Clémentine Garrouste & Elsa Perdrix, 2021. "Impact of later retirement on mortality: Evidence from France," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 1178-1199, May.
    3. Uwe Hassler & Marc‐Oliver Pohle, 2022. "Unlucky Number 13? Manipulating Evidence Subject to Snooping," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 90(2), pages 397-410, August.
    4. Kindsgrab, Paul M., 2022. "Do higher income taxes on top earners trickle down? A local labor markets approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    5. Bagilet, Vincent & Zabrocki-Hallak, Léo, 2022. "Why Some Acute Health Effects of Air Pollution Could Be Inflated," I4R Discussion Paper Series 11, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    6. Kyle Rozema, 2021. "Does the Bar Exam Protect the Public?," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 801-848, December.
    7. Elbert Dijkgraaf & Raymond Gradus, 2021. "Are Bottle Banks Sufficiently Effective for Increasing Glass Recycling Rates?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-11, August.
    8. Fidjeland, Andreas & Rege, Mari & Solli, Ingeborg F. & Størksen, Ingunn, 2023. "Reducing the gender gap in early learning: Evidence from a field experiment in Norwegian preschools," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    9. Voxi Heinrich Amavilah & Antonio Rodríguez Andrés, 2024. "Knowledge Economy and the Economic Performance of African Countries: A Seemingly Unrelated and Recursive Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 110-143, March.
    10. Thomas Lebesmuehlbacher & Rhet A. Smith, 2021. "The effect of medical cannabis laws on pharmaceutical marketing to physicians," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(10), pages 2409-2436, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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