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Do Value-Added Taxes Affect International Trade Flows? Evidence from 30 Years of Tax Reforms

Author

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  • Youssef Benzarti
  • Alisa Tazhitdinova

Abstract

This paper uses all value-added tax (VAT) changes across EU Member States from 1988 to 2016 to estimate the effect of VATs on trade flows. We find small elasticities of trade flows with respect to VATs, even when VAT changes are large. These elasticities are substantially smaller than the elasticities of trade flows with respect to tariffs estimated in the trade literature. This finding holds across different time periods, countries, and types of reforms. Our results imply that VATs are unlikely to distort trade flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Youssef Benzarti & Alisa Tazhitdinova, 2021. "Do Value-Added Taxes Affect International Trade Flows? Evidence from 30 Years of Tax Reforms," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 469-489, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:13:y:2021:i:4:p:469-89
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20190492
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    Cited by:

    1. Fang, Chao & Ma, Shuzhong, 2024. "Taxing the online haven: Impacts of the EU VAT reform on cross-border e-commerce," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    2. Jules Ducept & Evangelos Koumanakos & Panayiotis Nicolaides, 2023. "Consumption Taxes and Corporate Income Taxes: Evidence from Place-Based VAT," Working Papers hal-04564099, HAL.
    3. Gale, William G., 2020. "Raising Revenue with a Progressive Value-Added Tax," MPRA Paper 99197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Georg Schneider & Frank Stähler & Georg U. Thunecke, 2022. "The (Non-)Neutrality of Value-Added Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9663, CESifo.
    5. Gadenne, Lucie & Nandi, Tushar K. & Rathelot, Roland, 2019. "Taxation and Supplier Networks : Evidence from India," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1208, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    6. M. Martin Boyer & Philippe d'Astous, 2023. "Tax compliance and firm response to electronic sales monitoring," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1430-1468, November.
    7. Fang, Chao, 2025. "Taxation with information: Impacts of customs data exchange on tax evasion in Pakistan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(1).
    8. Asatryan, Zareh & Gomtsyan, David, 2020. "The incidence of VAT evasion," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-027, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Mr. Ruud de Mooij & Mr. Shafik Hebous & Mr. Michael Keen, 2025. "Efficiency Aspects of the Value Added Tax," IMF Working Papers 2025/165, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Fan, Haichao & Liu, Yu & Qiu, Larry D. & Zhao, Xiaoxue, 2020. "Export to elude," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Rabah Arezki & Frederick van der Ploeg & Gregoire Rota-Graziosi & Văn Đạo Lê & Rick van der Ploeg, 2025. "The VAT Paradox in Resource Dependent Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 11967, CESifo.
    12. Evers, Andrea & Matthaei, Eva Kristina, 2021. "Steuerplanung unter Unsicherheit: Eine Befragungsstudie zum Brexit," Discussion Papers 2021/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    13. João Nuno Quelhas & Tiago Bernardino & Ricardo Duque Gabriel & Márcia Silva-Pereira, 2024. "A Temporary VAT Cut in Three Acts: Announcement, Implementation, and Reversal," Working Papers w202404, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    14. Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Gravity at Sixty: The Workhorse Model of Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 9584, CESifo.
    15. Joel Slemrod & Tejaswi Velayudhan, 2022. "The VAT at 100: A Retrospective Survey and Agenda for Future Research," Public Finance Review, , vol. 50(1), pages 4-32, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods

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