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Global Financial Crisis and Africa: Is the Impact Permanent or Transitory? Time Series Evidence from North Africa


  • Hassan Y. Aly
  • Mark C. Strazicich


We utilize time series tests with structural breaks to test for an adverse impact on economic growth rates in North Africa associated with the recent US financial crisis and global recession. One or two breaks are identified for each country, except for Morocco where no break is found, while breaks coincide with the 2008 financial crisis in only two of the six countries (Libya and Mauritania). These findings suggest that, in general, shocks from the recent financial crisis have only temporary effects on economic growth in these countries. Impulse response functions with breaks confirm these results. We conclude by suggesting explanations for these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassan Y. Aly & Mark C. Strazicich, 2011. "Global Financial Crisis and Africa: Is the Impact Permanent or Transitory? Time Series Evidence from North Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 577-581, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:101:y:2011:i:3:p:577-81

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    Cited by:

    1. Duygun, Meryem & Isaksson, Anders & Kaulich, Florian, 2016. "Did the global financial crisis hit Africa? Insights from a multi-country firm level survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 308-316.
    2. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chen, Hsien-Yi & Yang, Shu-Ling & Chang, Chong-Chuo, 2016. "Output spillovers from changes in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 48-63.
    3. Razmi, Fatemeh & M., Azali & Chin, Lee & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2015. "The effects of oil price and US economy on Thailand's macroeconomy: The role of monetary transmission mechanism," MPRA Paper 69096, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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