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The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

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Cited by:

  1. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Alexander Keck, 2017. "Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead: Driving Forces and Policy Implications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 36-55, January.
  2. Auboin, Marc & Borino, Floriana, 2017. "The falling elasticity of global trade to economic activity: Testing the demand channel," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2017-09, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
  3. World Bank Group, 2017. "Kenya Economic Update, April 2017, No. 15," World Bank Publications - Reports 26392, The World Bank Group.
  4. Roman Stöllinger, 2015. "Eine Anatomie des österreichischen Exportwachstums nach der Krise," FIW Policy Brief series 026, FIW.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Kenneth S. Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose, 2022. "The Aftermath of Debt Surges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 637-663, August.
  6. Sei-Wan Kim & Moon Jung Choi, 2018. "Do Korean Exports Have Different Patterns over Different Regimes?: New Evidence from STAR-VECM," Working Papers 2018-30, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
  7. Byahut, Rajkumar & Dutta, Sourish & Iyer, Chidambaran G. & Nataraj, Manikantha, 2020. "Commentary on World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains," EconStor Preprints 231380, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  8. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
  9. Jakubik, Adam & Ruta, Michele, 2023. "Trading with friends in uncertain times," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 768-780.
  10. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
  11. Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 2020. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Global Value Chains: Some Facts, Many Questions," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 57(2), pages 285-308, September.
  12. Christopher Findlay & Bernard Hoekman, 2021. "Value chain approaches to reducing policy spillovers on international business," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(3), pages 390-409, September.
  13. Gee Hee Hong & Jaewoo Lee & Wei Liao & Dulani Seneviratne, 2017. "China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-34, February.
  14. Ahn, JaeBin & Choi, Moon Jung, 2020. "From firm-level imports to aggregate productivity: Evidence from Korean manufacturing firm data," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  15. Maria del Pilar Esguerra & Sergio Parra Ulloa, 2016. "Colombia, por fuera las cadenas globales de valor: ¿causa o síntoma del bajo desempeño exportador?," Borradores de Economia 966, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  16. repec:ecr:col016:40117 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2018. "Lost Inflation?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 18-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  18. Blagrave, Patrick & Vesperoni, Esteban, 2018. "The implications of China’s slowdown for international trade," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 36-47.
  19. Patrice Ollivaud & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2015. "Does the post-crisis weakness of global trade solely reflect weak demand?," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 269-267.
  20. Caroline Freund & Aaditya Mattoo & Alen Mulabdic & Michele Ruta, 2022. "Natural Disasters and the Reshaping of Global Value Chains," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 590-623, September.
  21. Wen, Wen & Hu, Die & Hao, Jie, 2018. "International students’ experiences in China: Does the planned reverse mobility work?," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 204-212.
  22. Barhoumi, Karim & Darné, Olivier & Ferrara, Laurent, 2016. "A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 111-115.
  23. Simola, Heli, 2021. "Trade collapse during the covid-19 crisis and the role of demand composition," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2021, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  24. Karol Szafranek & Aleksandra Hałka, 2019. "Determinants of Low Inflation in an Emerging, Small Open Economy through the Lens of Aggregated and Disaggregated Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(13), pages 3094-3111, October.
  25. David Haugh & Alexandre Kopoin & Elena Rusticelli & David Turner & Richard Dutu, 2016. "Cardiac Arrest or Dizzy Spell: Why is World Trade So Weak and What can Policy Do About It?," OECD Economic Policy Papers 18, OECD Publishing.
  26. Albert G. Zeufack & Cesar Calderon & Gerard Kambou & Calvin Z. Djiofack & Megumi Kubota & Vijdan Korman & Catalina Cantu Canales, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, No. 21, Spring 2020 [Africa's Pulse]," World Bank Publications - Reports 33541, The World Bank Group.
  27. repec:bla:glopol:v:8:y:2017:i::p:30-41 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Spatareanu, Mariana & Manole, Vlad & Kabiri, Ali, 2018. "Exports and bank shocks: Evidence from matched firm-bank data," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 46-56.
  29. K. Buysse & E. Vincent, 2015. "Factors explaining emerging economies’ growth slowdown," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 61-79, september.
  30. Ahmed Swarnali & Appendino Maximiliano & Ruta Michele, 2017. "Global value chains and the exchange rate elasticity of exports," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-24, January.
  31. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2016. "Globalization and Chinese Growth: Ends of Trends?," Working Paper Series 16-029, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  32. Ohnsorge, Franziska & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2023. "Slowing Growth: More Than a Rough Patch," CEPR Discussion Papers 18226, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  33. Sei‐Wan Kim & Moon Jung Choi, 2020. "Does Trade Elasticity Vary Across Regimes? New Evidence from Korean Exports, Incorporating Regime Changes," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 379-403, December.
  34. Constantinescu, Cristina & Mattoo, Aaditya & Ruta, Michele, 2016. "Does the global trade slowdown matter?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 711-722.
  35. Beckman, Jayson & Dyck, John & Heerman, Kari, 2017. "The Global Landscape of Agricultural Trade, 1995-2014," Economic Information Bulletin 265270, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  36. Borin, Alessandro & Di Nino, Virginia & Mancini, Michele & Sbracia, Massimo, 2016. "The Cyclicality of the Income Elasticity of Trade," MPRA Paper 73000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. repec:zbw:bofitp:2021_012 is not listed on IDEAS
  38. Torsten Schmidt & Roland Döhrn & Daniela Grozea-Helmenstein & Philipp an de Meulen & Martin Micheli & Svetlana Rujin & Lina Zwick, 2015. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Weltkonjunktur weiter aufwärts gerichtet," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 38, 03.
  39. Yavuz Arslan & Juan Contreras & Nikhil Patel & Chang Shu, 2018. "Globalisation and deglobalisation in emerging market economies: facts and trends," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and deglobalisation, volume 100, pages 1-25, Bank for International Settlements.
  40. Spatareanu, Mariana & Manole, Vlad & Kabiri, Ali, 2018. "Exports and bank shocks: evidence from matched firm-bank data," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 89982, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  41. Richard Baldwin & Rebecca Freeman & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2024. "Deconstructing Deglobalization: The Future of Trade is in Intermediate Services," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 19(1), pages 18-37, January.
  42. Andreas Chai, 2018. "Household consumption patterns and the sectoral composition of growing economies: A review of the interlinkages," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201802, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
  43. Julie Lochard, 2016. "Intégration et échanges internationaux : effets contemporains et persistants," Erudite HDR / Erudite Accreditation to supervise Ph.D., Erudite, number hd16-01 edited by Jean-François Jacques, June.
  44. Borin, Alessandro & Mancini, Michele, 2017. "Follow the Value Added: Tracking Bilateral Relations in Global Value Chains," MPRA Paper 82692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  45. Antonio Tricarico & Xavier Sol, 2016. "Re-Building the World: The Structural Adjustment Through Mega-Infrastructures in the Era of Financialization," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 59(1), pages 53-58, June.
  46. Giovanni Federico & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2017. "A tale of two globalizations: gains from trade and openness 1800–2010," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(3), pages 601-626, August.
  47. Sanjay Kalra, 2016. "6½ Decades of Global Trade and Income: “New Normal” or “Back to Normal” after GTC and GFC?," IMF Working Papers 2016/139, International Monetary Fund.
  48. Ayako Obashi, 2020. "Expansion and Deepening of Production Networks," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 16(1), pages 17-46, February.
  49. Marc Auboin & Floriana Borino, 2018. "The Falling Elasticity of Global Trade to Economic Activity: Testing the Demand Channel," CESifo Working Paper Series 7228, CESifo.
  50. Mr. Jack J Ree & Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Seoeun Choi, 2015. "Should Korea Worry about a Permanently Weak Yen?," IMF Working Papers 2015/158, International Monetary Fund.
  51. Di Filippo, Gabriele, 2018. "What Place does Luxembourg hold in Global Value Chains?," MPRA Paper 86235, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  52. Schmidt, Torsten & Döhrn, Roland & Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela & an de Meulen, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Weltkonjunktur weiter aufwärts gerichtet," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(1), pages 5-42.
  53. Serdar Ongan & Ismet Gocer, 2021. "The Impacts of Trade Policy Uncertainties on Bilateral Trade Balances of the United States and Japan," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(3), pages 236-247, September.
  54. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2015.
  55. Naanwaab Cephas B. & Edwards Jeffrey A., 2017. "Analyzing Trade Growth Effects of Deviations from Long-run Economic Growth," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 1-11, December.
  56. Ligang Song & Yixiao Zhou, 2020. "The COVID‐19 Pandemic and Its Impact on the Global Economy: What Does It Take to Turn Crisis into Opportunity?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(4), pages 1-25, July.
  57. Mahmood, Asif & Zahoor, Muhammad Awais, 2021. "Role of Global Value Chains and Exchange Rate: An Empirical Examination in case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 115958, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  58. Patrick Alexander & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Alex Proulx, 2017. "An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports," Discussion Papers 17-1, Bank of Canada.
  59. Mari Pangestu & Lili Yan Ing & Gracia Hadiwidjaja, 2018. "The Future of East Asia’s Trade: A Call for Better Globalization," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 219-238, July.
  60. Alessandro Borin & Michele Mancini, 2015. "Follow the value added: bilateral gross export accounting," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1026, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  61. Sasaki, Yuri & Yoshida, Yushi, 2018. "Decomposition of Japan's trade balance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 507-537.
  62. Carter Mix & George Alessandria, 2017. "The Global Trade Slowdown: A Dynamic Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 907, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  63. George Alessandria & Carter Mix, 2019. "Trade Policy is Real News: A quantitative analysis of past, current, and future changes in U.S. trade barriers," 2019 Meeting Papers 545, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  64. Jean Chateau & Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2015. "Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 67-100.
  65. Ahmed,Swarnali & Appendino,Maximiliano Andres & Ruta,Michele, 2015. "Depreciations without exports ? global value chains and the exchange rate elasticity of exports," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7390, The World Bank.
  66. Kiyota, Kozo, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the world trade network," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  67. Lee, Sooyoung, 2017. "Anatomy of the Trade Collapse, Recovery, and Slowdown: Evidence from Korea," Working Papers 17-3, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
  68. Dermot Hodson, 2015. "Eurozone Governance: Deflation, Grexit 2.0 and the Second Coming of Jean-Claude Juncker," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53, pages 144-161, September.
  69. Xuefeng Qian & Zhao Liu & Ying Pan, 2017. "China's Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(6), pages 65-83, November.
  70. Uri Dadush, 2015. "Should We Worry About the Great Trade Slowdown?," Policy notes & Policy briefs 1519, Policy Center for the New South.
  71. Helmut K. Anheier & Robert Falkner & James M. Boughton & Domenico Lombardi & Anton Malkin, 2017. "The Limits of Global Economic Governance after the 2007–09 International Financial Crisis," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 8(s4), pages 30-41, June.
  72. Alessandro Cigno, 2015. "Trade, foreign investment, and wage inequality in developing countries," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 193-193, November.
  73. Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, 2016. "The Impact of Trade Agreements: New Approach, New Insights," IMF Working Papers 2016/117, International Monetary Fund.
  74. Jörg Mayer, 2021. "Development strategies for middle‐income countries in a digital world—Insights from modern trade economics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2515-2546, September.
  75. Ugo Bardi & Rolf Jakobi & Hiroshan Hettiarachchi, 2016. "Mineral Resource Depletion: A Coming Age of Stockpiling?," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-9, August.
  76. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  77. Jouchi Nakajima & Kosuke Takatomi & Tomoko Mori & Shinsuke Ohyama, 2016. "Slow Trade: Structural and Cyclical Factors in Global Trade Slowdown," Bank of Japan Research Papers 16-12-22, Bank of Japan.
  78. Jarkko Jaaskela & Thomas Mathews, 2015. "Explaining the Slowdown in Global Trade," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 39-46, September.
  79. Gunnella, Vanessa & Al-Haschimi, Alexander & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Chiacchio, Francesco & de Soyres, François & Di Lupidio, Benedetta & Fidora, Michael & Franco-Bedoya, Sebastian & Frohm, Erik & G, 2019. "The impact of global value chains on the euro area economy," Occasional Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
  80. Cabrillac, Bruno & Al-Haschimi, Alexander & Babecká Kucharčuková, Oxana & Borin, Alessandro & Bussière, Matthieu & Cezar, Raphael & Derviz, Alexis & Dimitropoulou, Dimitra & Ferrara, Laurent & Gächter, 2016. "Understanding the weakness in global trade - What is the new normal?," Occasional Paper Series 178, European Central Bank.
  81. Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2016. "Breaking down world trade elasticities: a panel ECM approach," Working Papers 1614, Banco de España.
  82. Marcel P. Timmer & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2021. "Supply Chain Fragmentation and the Global Trade Elasticity: A New Accounting Framework," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(4), pages 656-680, December.
  83. World Bank Group, 2017. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 25823, December.
  84. Serdar Ongan & Ismet Gocer, 2022. "Japan-US bilateral commodity-level trade and trade policy-related uncertainty under the COVID-19 pandemic: the nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1397-1418, August.
  85. Giovanni Federico & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2017. "A tale of two globalizations: gains from trade and openness 1800–2010," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(3), pages 601-626, August.
  86. Marco Giansoldati & Tullio Gregori, 2018. "Trade Collapses and Trade Slowdowns: Evidence from Some Central and Eastern European Countries," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 16(1 (Spring), pages 3-18.
  87. Simola, Heli, 2021. "The impact of Covid-19 on global value chains," BOFIT Policy Briefs 2/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
  88. World Bank Group, 2015. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2015 : Having Fiscal Space and Using It," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 20758, December.
  89. Patricia Walter, 2017. "Anatomy of Austria’s trade in services," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 33-52.
  90. Przemyslaw Wozniak & Malgorzata Galar, 2018. "Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade," European Economy - Economic Briefs 033, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  91. Luigi Bonatti, 2016. "Anemic economic growth in advanced economies: structural factors and the impotence of expansionary macroeconomic policies," DEM Working Papers 2016/11, Department of Economics and Management.
  92. Bernhard G. Gunter & Britni Wilcher, 2020. "Three decades of globalisation: Which countries won, which lost?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 1076-1102, April.
  93. Gregori, Tullio, 2021. "Protectionism and international trade: A long-run view," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-13.
  94. Julien Champagne & Christopher Hajzler & Dmitry Matveev & Harlee Melinchuk & Antoine Poulin-Moore & Kemal Ozhan & Youngmin Park & Temel Taskin, 2023. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2023-6, Bank of Canada.
  95. Döhrn, Roland & Jäger, Philipp & Zwick, Lina, 2016. "Peak Trade? Auswirkungen einer weltwirtschaftlichen Wachstumsverlangsamung auf das Exportland Nordrhein-Westfalen," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 148929.
  96. Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Mr. Jaewoo Lee & Wei Liao & Dulani Seneviratne, 2016. "China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown," IMF Working Papers 2016/105, International Monetary Fund.
  97. Agnes Ghibuțiu, 2017. "Eu And The Challenges Of Rising Global Protectionism," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 12(1), pages 7-27, March.
  98. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2019. "Deglobalization 2.0," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18560.
  99. -, 2016. "Horizons 2030: Equality at the centre of sustainable development. Summary," Documentos de posición del período de sesiones de la Comisión 40117, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  100. Manghnani,Ruchita & Meyer,Birgit Elisabeth & Saez,Juan Sebastian & Van Der Marel,Erik Leendert, 2021. "Integration in Global Value Chains — The Role of Service Inputs : Evidence from India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9813, The World Bank.
  101. Song, Yeongkwan, 2021. "The global trade environment in the Biden era and response strategies for Korea," KDI Focus 104, Korea Development Institute (KDI).
  102. Central Bank of Brazil, 2018. "Globalisation and deglobalisation," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and deglobalisation, volume 100, pages 71-82, Bank for International Settlements.
  103. D. Dessì & R. Paci, 2023. "The impact of Global Value Chains participation on countries' productivity," Working Paper CRENoS 202305, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  104. Svitlana Tkalenko & Tetyana Melnyk & Liudmyla Kudyrko, 2020. "Macroeconomic Factors Influencing The Development Of Ukraine’S Foreign Trade," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 6(3).
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