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The Impact of Trade Agreements: New Approach, New Insights

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  • Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan

Abstract

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has reinvigorated research on the ex-ante impact of trade agreements. The results from these ex-ante models are subject to considerable uncertainties, and needs to be complimented by ex-post studies. The paper fills this gap in recent literature by employing synthetic control methods (SCM) – currently extremely popular in micro and macro studies – to understand the impact of trade agreements in the period 1983–1995 for 104 country pairs. The key advantage of using SCM to address selection bias – one of the persisting issues in trade literature – is that it allows the effect of unobserved confounder to vary with time, as opposed to traditional econometric methods that can deal with time-invariant unobserved country characteristics. Using SCM approach, the paper finds that trade agreements can generate substantial gains, on average an increase of exports by 80 percentage points over ten years. The export gains are higher when emerging markets have trade agreements with advanced markets. The paper shows that all the countries in NAFTA have substantially gained due to NAFTA. Finally, there is some evidence that trade agreements can potentially lead to slight import diversion, but not export diversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, 2016. "The Impact of Trade Agreements: New Approach, New Insights," IMF Working Papers 2016/117, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/117
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    2. Susanne Fricke & Geoffrey Chapman, 2017. "The Role of Standards in North-South Trade: The Case of Agricultural Exports from Sub-Saharan African Countries to the EU," Jena Economics Research Papers 2017-011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    3. Giovanni Cerulli & Silvia Nenci & Luca Salvatici & Antonio Zinilli, 2022. "Currency Unions and Global Value Chains: The Impact of the Euro on the Italian Value Added Exports," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 373-407, July.
    4. Amat Adarov, 2023. "Eurasian economic integration: impact evaluation using the gravity model and the synthetic control methods," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 467-504, May.
    5. Ms. Kimberly Beaton & Ms. Valerie Cerra & Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, 2021. "Trade, Jobs, and Inequality," IMF Working Papers 2021/178, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Xiaodan Ding & Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, 2017. "Composition of Trade in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2017/042, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Samuel Verevis & Murat Üngör, 2021. "What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 20-50, February.
    8. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Lamonaca, Emilia, 2023. "Exports of Fruits and Vegetables to the EU: policy recommendations," MPRA Paper 118000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Kis, Katalin, 2017. "A Kelet-afrikai Közösség belső kereskedelmére ható tényezők [Factors determining the intra-regional trade of the East African Community]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 943-969.
    10. Christopher M. Dent, 2021. "Trade, Climate and Energy: A New Study on Climate Action through Free Trade Agreements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-30, July.

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