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Eurasian Economic Integration: Impact Evaluation Using the Gravity Model and the Synthetic Control Methods

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  • Amat Adarov

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

The study examines the impact of Eurasian economic integration at aggregate and industry levels using the gravity model of trade and the synthetic control methods. The analysis finds that the trade creation effect associated with the establishment of the Eurasian Customs Union in 2010 and its further deepening, while initially exhibiting high significance, largely dissipated towards the year 2015. Overall, the net impact was overwhelmingly positive for Belarus, generally positive for Russia and mixed for Kazakhstan. Most gains are attributed to the exports of commodities (mineral products and metals), agri-food sector, and, notably, machinery and transportation sectors. The inception of the Eurasian bloc was also associated with trade diversion effects, consistent with the expectations for trade-diverting customs unions, yet the impact on imports from some countries and sectors outside the bloc, on the contrary, was positive.

Suggested Citation

  • Amat Adarov, 2018. "Eurasian Economic Integration: Impact Evaluation Using the Gravity Model and the Synthetic Control Methods," wiiw Working Papers 150, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:150
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    Cited by:

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    2. Andrzej Cieślik & Oleg Gurshev, 2022. "Friends with or without benefits? An empirical evaluation of bilateral trade and economic integration between some of the post-Soviet economies," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(4), pages 769-795, December.
    3. Amat Adarov & Mahdi Ghodsi, 2020. "The Impact of the EAEU-Iran Preferential Trade Agreement," wiiw Working Papers 179, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    4. Adam Pochmara & Jan Jakub Michałek, 2023. "The impact of the accession to the EU on trade flows of the Visegrad countries. Analysis based on the synthetic control method," Working Papers 2023-21, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    5. Augusto Cerqua & Pierluigi Montalbano & Zhansaya Temerbulatova, 2021. "A decade of Eurasian Integration: An ex-post non-parametric assessment of the Eurasian Economic Union," Working Papers 1/21, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    6. Amat Adarov & Mahdi Ghodsi, 2021. "The impact of the Eurasian Economic Union–Iran preferential trade agreement on mutual trade at aggregate and sectoral levels," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 125-157, March.
    7. Amat Adarov, 2021. "Central, East and Southeast European Countries in the Global Value Chain Network," wiiw Policy Notes 51, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    8. Alessandro Ferrari & Matteo Fiorini & Joseph Francois, Bernard Hoekman, Lisa Maria Lechner, Miriam Manchin, Filippo Santi, 2021. "EU Trade Agreements and Non-Trade Policy Objectives," RSCAS Working Papers 2021/48, European University Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurasian integration; economic integration; trade policy impact; synthetic counterfactual method; gravity model of trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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