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The Impact of the EAEU-Iran Preferential Trade Agreement

Author

Listed:
  • Amat Adarov

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Mahdi Ghodsi

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

The preferential trade agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Iran on mutual trade entered into force in October 2019. In this report we estimate its expected impact at aggregate and sectoral levels using the gravity model of trade based on the global sample of bilateral trade flows at the HS 6-digit level. The analysis suggests that the implementation of the agreement will boost mutual trade for both trading partners, with relatively greater gains expected for the EAEU’s exports to Iran. On aggregate, the total gains in mutual trade are estimated to reach almost USD 46 million, with exports from the EAEU to Iran expected to increase by 9.7%, compared with a rise in exports from Iran to the EAEU of up to 4%. The difference in the impact will also be significant across the five EAEU countries as well as across sectors, with the major export gains expected to accrue in the chemicals and agri-food sectors, especially trade in miscellaneous fruits and vegetables, as well as in the textile, polymer production and metals sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Amat Adarov & Mahdi Ghodsi, 2020. "The Impact of the EAEU-Iran Preferential Trade Agreement," wiiw Working Papers 179, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:179
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    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/the-impact-of-the-eaeu-iran-preferential-trade-agreement-dlp-5335.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2008. "FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 2-20, January.
    2. Amat Adarov, 2023. "Eurasian economic integration: impact evaluation using the gravity model and the synthetic control methods," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 467-504, May.
    3. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    4. Sergio Correia & Paulo Guimarães & Tom Zylkin, 2020. "Fast Poisson estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 20(1), pages 95-115, March.
    5. Vasily Astrov & Mahdi Ghodsi & Richard Grieveson & Robert Stehrer, 2018. "The Iranian Economy: Challenges and Opportunities," wiiw Research Reports 429, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Anna A. Bakulina & Olga V. Panina & Stanislav E. Prokofiev & Natalia L. Krasyukova & Valery L. Abramov & Natalia V. Sergeeva & Olga V. Loseva & Tatiana G. Kasyanenko & Elena V. Takmakova, 2021. "The Black Sea Region Energy Cooperation: Current Trends and Prospects," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 257-266.
    2. Heigermoser, Maximilian & Jamali Jaghdani, Tinoush & Götz, Linde, 2022. "Russia's agri-food trade with the Middle East and North Africa," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 253-277.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurasian integration; EAEU; Iran; trade agreement; gravity model; PPML;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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