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Does the global trade slowdown matter?

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  • Constantinescu, Cristina
  • Mattoo, Aaditya
  • Ruta, Michele

Abstract

Since the Global Financial Crisis, world trade growth has been subdued and lagging slightly behind GDP growth. Trade is growing more slowly not only because global GDP growth is lower, but also because trade itself has become less responsive to GDP. This article reviews the reasons behind the changing trade−income relationship and then investigates its consequences for economic growth. On the demand side, sluggish world import growth may adversely affect individual countries’ economic growth as it limits opportunities for their exports. On the supply side, slower trade may diminish the scope for productivity growth through increasing specialization and diffusion of technologies. We find preliminary evidence that the changing trade−income relationship matters, although the quantifiable effects do not appear to be large.

Suggested Citation

  • Constantinescu, Cristina & Mattoo, Aaditya & Ruta, Michele, 2016. "Does the global trade slowdown matter?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 711-722.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:38:y:2016:i:4:p:711-722
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.05.013
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    Cited by:

    1. Wee Chian Koh & Shu Yu, 2021. "A Decade After the 2009 Global Recession: Macroeconomic Developments," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(02), pages 1-24, June.
    2. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    3. Ahn, JaeBin & Duval, Romain, 2017. "Trading with China: Productivity gains, job losses," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 38-42.
    4. Haishi Li, 2023. "Multinational Production and Global Shock Propagation during the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 10349, CESifo.
    5. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    6. Xuefeng Qian & Zhao Liu & Ying Pan, 2017. "China's Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(6), pages 65-83, November.
    7. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2017. "One is not enough! An economic history perspective on world trade collapses and deglobalization," ISS Working Papers - General Series 98695, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    8. Przemyslaw Wozniak & Malgorzata Galar, 2018. "Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade," European Economy - Economic Briefs 033, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Eliphas Ndou, 2022. "Exchange rate changes on export volumes in South Africa under the inflation targeting period," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-25, June.
    10. Dongyeol Lee, 2020. "The role of R&D and input trade in productivity growth: innovation and technology spillovers," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 908-928, June.
    11. Peter A.G. Bergeijk & Steven Brakman & Charles Marrewijk, 2017. "Heterogeneous economic resilience and the great recession's world trade collapse," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(1), pages 3-12, March.
    12. World Bank Group, 2017. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 25823, December.
    13. Gregori, Tullio, 2021. "Protectionism and international trade: A long-run view," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-13.
    14. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2019. "Deglobalization 2.0," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18560.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade slowdown; Trade-income relationship; GDP growth; Productivity growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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