IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/ecoaab/18-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cardiac Arrest or Dizzy Spell: Why is World Trade So Weak and What can Policy Do About It?

Author

Listed:
  • David Haugh

    (OECD)

  • Alexandre Kopoin

    (OECD)

  • Elena Rusticelli

    (OECD)

  • David Turner

    (OECD)

  • Richard Dutu

    (OECD)

Abstract

World trade growth was rapid in the two decades prior to the global financial crisis but has halved subsequently. There are both structural and cyclical reasons for the slowdown. A deceleration in the rate of trade liberalisation post 2000 was initially obscured by the ongoing expansion of global value chains and associated rapid emergence of China in the world economy. Post the financial crisis global value chains started to unwind and, possibly associated with this, Chinese and Asian trade weakened markedly. These structural changes were compounded by insipid demand due to anaemic growth of global investment, as well as intra-euro area trade, both of which are trade intensive. The slowdown in world trade growth post crisis, if sustained, will have serious consequences for the medium-term growth of productivity and living standards. Trade policy has significant potential to reinvigorate trade growth but the political environment for reforms is difficult, with a growing polarisation of OECD electorates into pro- and anti- globalisation supporters. Further trade and investment policy liberalisation should be introduced as part of a wider package of structural reforms to spread the benefits of freer trade and investment more widely. Arrêt cardiaque ou crise passagère : Pourquoi le commerce mondial est-il si faible et que peut faire la politique économique pour le relancer ? Le commerce mondial a cru rapidement au court des deux décennies qui ont précédé la crise financière de 2008. Mais sa croissance a été divisée par deux depuis. Des facteurs à la fois structurels et conjoncturels expliquent ce changement. Le ralentissement de la libéralisation du commerce mondial après 2000 a été masqué par l’expansion des chaines de valeur mondiale et l’insertion rapide de la Chine dans le commerce international. Après la crise, les chaines de valeur mondiale se sont détendues et le commerce Chinois et asiatique a ralenti, les deux phénomènes étant peut-être liés. Ces changements structurels ont été aggravés par une faible demande due à une croissance anémique de l’investissement international et du commerce intra-européen, les deux étant une source importante d’échanges commerciaux. S’il perdure, ce ralentissement de la croissance du commerce mondial aura des conséquences fâcheuses pour la croissance de la productivité et du niveau de vie. La politique commerciale dispose d’un potentiel pour relancer cette croissance, mais l’environnement politique actuel est peu favorable du fait d’une polarisation croissance au sein de l’électorat des pays de l’OCDE entre partisans de la globalisation et ceux plus sceptiques sur ses bienfaits. Une politique plus volontariste en matière de libéralisation des échanges et de l’investissement devrait être mise en place dans le cadre d’un plan global de reformes structurelles.

Suggested Citation

  • David Haugh & Alexandre Kopoin & Elena Rusticelli & David Turner & Richard Dutu, 2016. "Cardiac Arrest or Dizzy Spell: Why is World Trade So Weak and What can Policy Do About It?," OECD Economic Policy Papers 18, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:18-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlr2h45q532-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/5jlr2h45q532-en
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/5jlr2h45q532-en?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Bloom & Mirko Draca & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 87-117.
    2. Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås & Dorothée Rouzet, 2015. "The Impact of Services Trade Restrictiveness on Trade Flows: First Estimates," OECD Trade Policy Papers 178, OECD Publishing.
    3. Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 2020. "The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 34(1), pages 121-142.
    4. Marc J. Melitz & Giancarlo I. P. Ottaviano, 2021. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 4, pages 87-108, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Mr. Ashvin Ahuja & Mr. Malhar S Nabar, 2012. "Investment-Led Growth in China: Global Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2012/267, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ettore Dorrucci & Gabor Pula & Daniel Santabárbara, 2013. "China’s economic growth and rebalancing," Occasional Papers 1301, Banco de España.
    7. Ben Westmore, 2013. "R&D, Patenting and Growth: The Role of Public Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1047, OECD Publishing.
    8. Hiau Looi Kee & Heiwai Tang, 2016. "Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1402-1436, June.
    9. Nobuo Kiriyama, 2012. "Trade and Innovation: Synthesis Report," OECD Trade Policy Papers 135, OECD Publishing.
    10. Nicholas Bloom & Mirko Draca & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 87-117.
    11. Patrice Ollivaud & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2015. "Does the post-crisis weakness of global trade solely reflect weak demand?," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 269-267.
    12. Calista Cheung & Stéphanie Guichard, 2009. "Understanding the World Trade Collapse," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 729, OECD Publishing.
    13. Guglielmo Barone & Federico Cingano, 2011. "Service Regulation and Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 931-957, September.
    14. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2008. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity (DOI:10.111/j.1467-937x.2007.00463.x)," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 985-985.
    15. Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås, 2016. "Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI): The Trade Effect of Regulatory Differences," OECD Trade Policy Papers 189, OECD Publishing.
    16. Ettore Dorrucci & Gabor Pula & Daniel Santabárbara, 2013. "China’s economic growth and rebalancing," Occasional Papers 1301, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    17. Carmen Fillat & Julia Woerz, 2011. "Good or bad? The influence of FDI on productivity growth. An industry-level analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 293-328.
    18. Meredith A. Crowley, 2003. "An introduction to the WTO and GATT," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 27(Q IV), pages 42-57.
    19. Ferrantino, Michael J. & Taglioni, Daria, 2014. "Global Value Chains in the Current Trade Slowdown," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 138, pages 1-6, March.
    20. Giuseppe Nicoletti & Stephen S. Golub & Dana Hajkova & Daniel Mirza & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2003. "Policies and International Integration: Influences on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 359, OECD Publishing.
    21. Jean-Marc Fournier & Aurore Domps & Yaëlle Gorin & Xavier Guillet & Délia Morchoisne, 2015. "Implicit Regulatory Barriers in the EU Single Market: New Empirical Evidence from Gravity Models," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1181, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bena Jan & Ondko Peter & Vourvachaki Evangelia, 2011. "Productivity Gains from Services Liberalization in Europe," EERC Working Paper Series 11/15e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    2. Aurelien Quignon, 2022. "Market Regulation and Innovation: Direct and Indirect Effects," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 429-456, December.
    3. Matteo Bugamelli & Francesca Lotti & Monica Amici & Emanuela Ciapanna & Fabrizio Colonna & Francesco D�Amuri & Silvia Giacomelli & Andrea Linarello & Francesco Manaresi & Giuliana Palumbo & Filippo , 2018. "Productivity growth in Italy: a tale of a slow-motion change," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 422, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Sabien Dobbelaere & Catherine Fuss & Mark Vancauteren, 2023. "Does offshoring shape labor market imperfections? A comparative analysis of Belgian and Dutch firms," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-006/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Impullitti, Giammario & Licandro, Omar & Rendahl, Pontus, 2022. "Technology, market structure and the gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Laurent Cavenaile & Pau Roldan-Blanco & Tom Schmitz, 2023. "International Trade and Innovation Dynamics with Endogenous Markups," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(651), pages 971-1004.
    7. Lisandra Flach & Michael Irlacher, 2018. "Product versus Process: Innovation Strategies of Multiproduct Firms," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 236-277, February.
    8. Barrows, Geoffrey & Ollivier, Hélène, 2021. "Foreign demand, developing country exports, and CO2 emissions: Firm-level evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    9. Benedikt Heid & Raúl Mínguez & Asier Minondo, 2021. "Is competition from China so special?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 64-88, January.
    10. Reto Foellmi & Stefan Legge & Alexa Tiemann, 2021. "Innovation and trade in the presence of credit constraints," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1168-1205, November.
    11. Banh, Thi Hang & Caselli, Mauro, 2022. "Foreign Competition, Skill Premium, and Product Quality: Impact of Chinese Competition on Mexican Plants," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1162, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    12. Andrew N. Greenland & Mihai Ion & John W. Lopresti & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 27510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Geoffrey Barrows & Helene Ollivier, 2018. "Foreign Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Empirical Evidence with Implications for Leakage," Working Papers 2018.16, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    14. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Enrico Sette, 2015. "The Age of the Dragon: The Effect of Imports from China on Firm‐Level Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(6), pages 1091-1118, September.
    15. Richard Bräuer & Matthias Mertens & Viktor Slavtchev, 2023. "Import competition and firm productivity: Evidence from German manufacturing," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(8), pages 2285-2305, August.
    16. Jan De Loecker & Tim Obermeier & John Van Reenen, 2022. "Firms and Inequality," CEP Discussion Papers dp1838, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. Sébastien Jean & Ariell Reshef, 2017. "Why Trade, and What Would Be the Consequences of Protectionism?," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-18, CEPII research center.
    18. Jabbour, Liza & Tao, Zhigang & Vanino, Enrico & Zhang, Yan, 2019. "The good, the bad and the ugly: Chinese imports, European Union anti-dumping measures and firm performance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-20.
    19. Fromenteau, Philippe & Schymik, Jan & Tscheke, Jan, 2016. "Import Competition and the Composition of Firm Investments," Discussion Papers in Economics 29654, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    20. Bas, Maria & Paunov, Caroline, 2021. "Disentangling trade reform impacts on firm market and production decisions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    chaînes de valeur mondiales; Commerce mondial; global value chains; GVCs; politique commerciale; Ralentissement; Slowdown; trade policy; world trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:18-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edoecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.