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Identifying Uncertainty Shocks Using the Price of Gold

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Cited by:

  1. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Delrio, Silvia & Kima, Richard, 2021. "Financial uncertainty and real activity: The good, the bad, and the ugly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  2. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(3), pages 323-335, September.
  3. Boer, Lukas & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2021. "Qualitative versus quantitative external information for proxy vector autoregressive analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
  4. Kerssenfischer, Mark, 2017. "The effects of US monetary policy shocks: Applying external instrument identification to a dynamic factor model," Discussion Papers 08/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  5. Carpantier, Jean-François, 2021. "Anything but gold - The golden constant revisited," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
  6. Arias, Jonas E. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F. & Waggoner, Daniel F., 2021. "Inference in Bayesian Proxy-SVARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 88-106.
  7. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2020. "Fiscal policy shocks and stock prices in the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  8. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Measuring the response of gold prices to uncertainty: An analysis beyond the mean," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 105-116.
  9. Maria Elena Bontempi & Michele Frigeri & Roberto Golinelli & Matteo Squadrani, 2021. "EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 969-1015, October.
  10. Andrea Giovanni Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2019. "Proxy-SVAR as a Bridge for Identification with Higher Frequency Data," 2019 Meeting Papers 855, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Robin Braun & Ralf Brüggemann, 2020. "Identification of SVAR Models by Combining Sign Restrictions With External Instruments," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2020-01, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  12. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Global financial uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 432-449, April.
  13. Martin Bruns & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2022. "Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions: Testing for Time-Varying Impulse Responses in the Presence of Multiple Proxies," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2022-02, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  14. Matthew Read, 2023. "Estimating the Effects of Monetary Policy in Australia Using Sign‐restricted Structural Vector Autoregressions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(326), pages 329-358, September.
  15. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2023. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy During The Great Recession," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 577-606, May.
  16. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Marija Vukotic, 2022. "Patent-Based News Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 51-66, March.
  17. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2021. "The real effects of financial uncertainty shocks: A daily identification approach," Working Papers 61, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  18. Golitsis, Petros & Gkasis, Pavlos & Bellos, Sotirios K., 2022. "Dynamic spillovers and linkages between gold, crude oil, S&P 500, and other economic and financial variables. Evidence from the USA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  19. Martin Bruns & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2023. "An Alternative Bootstrap for Proxy Vector Autoregressions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(4), pages 1857-1882, December.
  20. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "Global risk and the dollar," Working Paper Series 2628, European Central Bank.
  21. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2018. "The global effects of global risk and uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2179, European Central Bank.
  22. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Karmakar, Sayar & Das, Sonali, 2022. "Forecasting output growth of advanced economies over eight centuries: The role of gold market volatility as a proxy of global uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  23. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Catalin Dragomirescu-Gaina, 2021. "Uncertainty spill-overs: when policy and financial realms overlap," Papers 2102.06404, arXiv.org.
  24. Mirela Miescu, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Working Papers 277077821, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  25. Lukas Boer & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2020. "A Simple Instrument for Proxy Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1905, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  26. Olli Palm'en, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effect of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks: a non-Gaussian VAR approach," Papers 2202.10834, arXiv.org.
  27. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  28. Giovanni Pellegrino & Federico Ravenna & Gabriel Züllig, 2021. "The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID‐19‐Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 841-869, August.
  29. OH, Joonseok; ROGANTINI PICCO, Anna, 2019. "Macro uncertainty and unemployment risk," Economics Working Papers ECO 2019/02, European University Institute.
  30. Helmut Lütkepohl & Thore Schlaak, 2022. "Heteroscedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1268-1281, June.
  31. Ma, Xiaohan & Samaniego, Roberto, 2019. "Deconstructing uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 22-41.
  32. Grebe, Moritz & Kandemir, Sinem & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Uncertainty about the war in Ukraine: Measurement and effects on the German business cycle," IMFS Working Paper Series 184, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  33. Giacomini, Raffaella & Kitagawa, Toru & Read, Matthew, 2022. "Robust Bayesian inference in proxy SVARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(1), pages 107-126.
  34. Gächter, Martin & Geiger, Martin & Stöckl, Sebastian, 2020. "Credit intermediation and the transmission of macro-financial uncertainty: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  35. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2020. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy during Extreme Events," CESifo Working Paper Series 8561, CESifo.
  36. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
  37. Carsten Jentsch & Kurt G. Lunsford, 2022. "Asymptotically Valid Bootstrap Inference for Proxy SVARs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 1876-1891, October.
  38. Altavilla, Carlo & Pariès, Matthieu Darracq & Nicoletti, Giulio, 2019. "Loan supply, credit markets and the euro area financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  39. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2019. "The global capital flows cycle: structural drivers and transmission channels," Working Paper Series 2280, European Central Bank.
  40. Sangyup Choi & Junhyeok Shin, 2020. "Brave New World? Bitcoin is not the New Gold: Understanding Cryptocurrency Price Dynamics," Working papers 2020rwp-167, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
  41. Martin Bruns, 2019. "Proxy VAR models in a data-rich environment," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2019-03, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  42. Soojin Jo & Justin J. Lee, 2019. "Uncertainty and Labor Market Fluctuations," Working Papers 1904, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  43. Bobasu, Alina & Geis, André & Quaglietti, Lucia & Ricci, Martino, 2021. "Tracking global economic uncertainty: implications for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2541, European Central Bank.
  44. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Gazzani, Andrea & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2023. "Are the effects of uncertainty shocks big or small?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  45. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2020. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Vector Autoregressions," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 148, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  46. Haroon Mumtaz & Katerina Petrova, 2023. "Changing Impact of Shocks: A Time‐Varying Proxy SVAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 635-654, March.
  47. Breitenlechner, Max & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Monetary policy announcements and bank lending: Do banks’ refinancing markets matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  48. Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "Dominant-currency pricing and the global output spillovers from US dollar appreciation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  49. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The fundamentals of safe assets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  50. Martin Bruns & Michele Piffer, 2021. "Monetary policy shocks over the business cycle: Extending the Smooth Transition framework," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  51. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2022. "Forecast Revisions as Instruments for News Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1341, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  52. Helmut Herwartz & Alexander Lange, 2024. "How certain are we about the role of uncertainty in the economy?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 126-149, January.
  53. Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Drygalla, Andrej & Gebauer, Stefan & Holtemöller, Oliver & Kämpfe, Martina & Lindner, Axel & Michelsen, Claus & Rieth, Malte & Schlaak, Thore, 2019. "Kurzfristige ökonomische Effekte eines "Brexit" auf die deutsche Wirtschaft: Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Energie," IWH Online 3/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  54. Georgios Georgiadis & Gernot J. Müller & Ben Schumann, 2023. "Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2058, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  55. Rangan Gupta & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "The Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on a Panel of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies: The Role of Exchange Rate, Trade and Financial Channels," Working Papers 201857, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  56. Eunbin Chung & Inbok Rhee, 2022. "Disasters and intergroup peace in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 58-72, January.
  57. Andrea Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2020. "Bridge Proxy-SVAR: estimating the macroeconomic effects of shocks identified at high-frequency," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1274, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  58. Brianti, Marco, 2021. "Financial Shocks, Uncertainty Shocks, and Monetary Policy Trade-Offs," Working Papers 2021-5, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  59. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Sala, Luca, 2021. "Downside and Upside Uncertainty Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 15881, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  60. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolo & Sala, Luca, 2023. "The Impact of Financial Shocks on the Forecast Distribution of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  61. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "The role of global economic conditions in forecasting gold market volatility: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  62. Jongrim Ha & Seohyun Lee & Inhwan So, 2022. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Evidence from Geopolitical Swings on the Korean Peninsula," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 21-56, February.
  63. Chen, Yong & Fang, Jing & Liu, Dingming, 2023. "The effects of Trump’s trade war on U.S. financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  64. Michael Ryan, 2020. "A Narrative Approach to Creating Instruments with Unstructured and Voluminous Text: An Application to Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers in Economics 20/10, University of Waikato.
  65. Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation uncertainty," Discussion Papers 32/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  66. Härtl, Tilmann, 2022. "Identifying Proxy VARs with Restrictions on the Forecast Error Variance," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264071, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  67. Breitenlechner, Max & Geiger, Martin & Scharler, Johann, 2022. "Bank liquidity and the propagation of uncertainty in the U.S," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
  68. Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Safe Havens, Machine Learning, and the Sources of Geopolitical Risk: A Forecasting Analysis Using Over a Century of Data," Working Papers 202201, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  69. Lukas Boer & Malte Rieth, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2072, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  70. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Pirtea, Marilen Gabriel & Dumitrescu Peculea, Adelina, 2023. "The essential role of Russian geopolitics: A fresh perception into the gold market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  71. Kerssenfischer, Mark & Schmeling, Maik, 2022. "What moves markets?," Discussion Papers 16/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  72. Martin Geiger & Jochen Güntner, 2022. "The Chronology of Brexit and UK Monetary Policy," Economics working papers 2022-06, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  73. Iryna Kaminska & Haroon Mumtaz & Roman Sustek, 2020. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Working Papers 917, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  74. Cepni, Oguzhan & Dul, Wiehan & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "The dynamics of U.S. REITs returns to uncertainty shocks: A proxy SVAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  75. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2020. "The international effects of global financial uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  76. Moritz Grebe & Sinem Kandemir & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Uncertainty about the War in Ukraine: Measurement and Effects on the German Business Cycle," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202314, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  77. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Is factionalism a push for gold price?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  78. Dominik Bertsche, 2019. "The effects of oil supply shocks on the macroeconomy: a Proxy-FAVAR approachThe effects of oil supply shocks on the macroeconomy: a Proxy-FAVAR approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2019-06, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  79. Venditti, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2020. "Global financial markets and oil price shocks in real time," Working Paper Series 2472, European Central Bank.
  80. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Sustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Bank of England working papers 914, Bank of England, revised 28 Apr 2021.
  81. Berg, Kimberly A. & Vu, Nam T., 2019. "International spillovers of U.S. financial volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 19-34.
  82. Adediran, Idris A. & Yinusa, Olalekan D. & Lakhani, Kanwal Hammad, 2021. "Where lies the silver lining when uncertainty hang dark clouds over the global financial markets?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  83. Andrea Gazzani & Vicente Herrera & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2024. "The Asymmetric Effects of Commodity Price Shocks in Emerging Economies," Working Papers 311, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  84. Tsvetomir Tsvetkov & Sonya Georgieva, 2022. "Inflation, Inflation Instability and Nominal Uncertainty in Bulgarian Economy," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 8, pages 41-64.
  85. Berthold, Brendan, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of uncertainty and risk aversion shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  86. Seohyun Lee & Inhwan So & Jongrim Ha, 2018. "Identifying Uncertainty Shocks due to Geopolitical Swings in Korea," Working Papers 2018-26, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
  87. Mirela S. Miescu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2019. "Proxy structural vector autoregressions, informational sufficiency and the role of monetary policy," Working Papers 894, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  88. David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Joshua Nielsen, 2022. "Stock Market Bubbles and the Forecastability of Gold Returns (and Volatility)," Working Papers 202228, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  89. G. Angelini & L. Fanelli, 2018. "Identification and estimation issues in Structural Vector Autoregressions with external instruments," Working Papers wp1122, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  90. Rivolta, Giulia & Trecroci, Carmine, 2020. "Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics," MPRA Paper 99403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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