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Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach

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Cited by:

  1. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2023. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: What is the role of parameter instability?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  2. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2019. "The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
  3. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2017. "Forecasting oil price realized volatility using information channels from other asset classes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 28-49.
  4. Dai, Zhifeng & Kang, Jie & Hu, Yangli, 2021. "Efficient predictability of oil price: The role of number of IPOs and U.S. dollar index," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  5. Hedi Ben Haddad & Imed Mezghani & Abdessalem Gouider, 2021. "The Dynamic Spillover Effects of Macroeconomic and Financial Uncertainty on Commodity Markets Uncertainties," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, June.
  6. Kenichiro McAlinn, 2021. "Mixed‐frequency Bayesian predictive synthesis for economic nowcasting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1143-1163, November.
  7. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Wu, Chongfeng, 2020. "Forecasting commodity prices out-of-sample: Can technical indicators help?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 666-683.
  8. Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane, 2014. "A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices With an Application to Crude Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 10162, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Gupta, Kartick & Banerjee, Rajabrata, 2019. "Does OPEC news sentiment influence stock returns of energy firms in the United States?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 34-45.
  10. Charles W. Calomiris & Nida Çakır Melek & Harry Mamaysky, 2021. "Predicting the Oil Market," NBER Working Papers 29379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Ding Du & Ronald J Gunderson & Xiaobing Zhao, 2016. "Investor sentiment and oil prices," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(2), pages 73-88, March.
  12. Van Robays, Ine & Belu Mănescu, Cristiana, 2014. "Forecasting the Brent oil price: addressing time-variation in forecast performance," Working Paper Series 1735, European Central Bank.
  13. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2013. "Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis," Staff Working Papers 13-25, Bank of Canada.
  14. Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 828-844, October.
  15. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Are there gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 33-43.
  16. João F. Caldeira & Guilherme V. Moura & Francisco J. Nogales & André A. P. Santos, 2017. "Combining Multivariate Volatility Forecasts: An Economic-Based Approach," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 247-285.
  17. Rubaszek, Michał, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 531-546.
  18. Verena Monschang & Bernd Wilfling, 2022. "A procedure for upgrading linear-convex combination forecasts with an application to volatility prediction," CQE Working Papers 9722, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  19. Francesco Ravazzolo & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2015. "A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity," Globalization Institute Working Papers 244, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  20. Ding, Yishan, 2018. "A novel decompose-ensemble methodology with AIC-ANN approach for crude oil forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 328-336.
  21. John M. Maheu & Yong Song, 2018. "An efficient Bayesian approach to multiple structural change in multivariate time series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 251-270, March.
  22. Qingxiang Han & Mengxi He & Yaojie Zhang & Muhammad Umar, 2023. "Default return spread: A powerful predictor of crude oil price returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1786-1804, November.
  23. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 238-252.
  24. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil under economic and statistical constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 599-608.
  25. Xing, Li-Min & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil prices with shrinkage methods: Can nonconvex penalty and Huber loss help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  26. Wen, Chufu & Zhu, Haoyang & Dai, Zhifeng, 2023. "Forecasting commodity prices returns: The role of partial least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  27. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2017. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 275-295, March.
  28. Zhang, Hui Jun & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Galbraith, John W., 2016. "Exchange rates and commodity prices: Measuring causality at multiple horizons," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 100-120.
  29. Ferrari, Davide & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2021. "Forecasting energy commodity prices: A large global dataset sparse approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  30. Christian Gourieroux & Joann Jasiak & Michelle Tong, 2021. "Convolution‐based filtering and forecasting: An application to WTI crude oil prices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1230-1244, November.
  31. Pan, Zhiyuan & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Forecasting stock returns: A predictor-constrained approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 200-217.
  32. Chu, Pyung Kun & Hoff, Kristian & Molnár, Peter & Olsvik, Magnus, 2022. "Crude oil: Does the futures price predict the spot price?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  33. Lycheva, Maria & Mironenkov, Alexey & Kurbatskii, Alexey & Fantazzini, Dean, 2022. "Forecasting oil prices with penalized regressions, variance risk premia and Google data," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 68, pages 28-49.
  34. Gonzalo Cortazar & Cristobal Millard & Hector Ortega & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2019. "Commodity Price Forecasts, Futures Prices, and Pricing Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(9), pages 4141-4155, September.
  35. Xi Wu & Adam Blake, 2023. "Does the combination of models with different explanatory variables improve tourism demand forecasting performance?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(8), pages 2032-2056, December.
  36. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2022. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A robust weighted least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  37. Nicholas Apergis, 2023. "Forecasting energy prices: Quantile‐based risk models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 17-33, January.
  38. Krzysztof Drachal, 2018. "Determining Time-Varying Drivers of Spot Oil Price in a Dynamic Model Averaging Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, May.
  39. Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2023. "Forecasting crude oil futures market returns: A principal component analysis combination approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 659-673.
  40. Knut Are Aastveit & Jamie L. Cross & Herman K. van Dijk, 2023. "Quantifying Time-Varying Forecast Uncertainty and Risk for the Real Price of Oil," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 523-537, April.
  41. Francesco Ravazzolo & Joaquin Vespignani, 2020. "World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 743-766, May.
  42. Conny Olovsson, 2019. "Oil prices in a general equilibrium model with precautionary demand for oil," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 1-17, April.
  43. Al Jabri, Salwa & Raghavan, Mala & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2022. "Oil prices and fiscal policy in an oil-exporter country: Empirical evidence from Oman," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  44. Wang, Jiqian & Lu, Xinjie & He, Feng & Ma, Feng, 2020. "Which popular predictor is more useful to forecast international stock markets during the coronavirus pandemic: VIX vs EPU?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  45. Cotter, John & Eyiah-Donkor, Emmanuel & Potì, Valerio, 2023. "Commodity futures return predictability and intertemporal asset pricing," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
  46. Mann, Janelle & Sephton, Peter, 2016. "Global relationships across crude oil benchmarks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-5.
  47. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  48. Gonzalo Cortazar & Cristobal Millard & Hector Ortega & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2016. "Commodity Price Forecasts, Futures Prices and Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 22991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Eyiah-Donkor, Emmanuel, 2022. "The illusion of oil return predictability: The choice of data matters!," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  50. Zhang, Yaojie & Ma, Feng & Shi, Benshan & Huang, Dengshi, 2018. "Forecasting the prices of crude oil: An iterated combination approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 472-483.
  51. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2023. "Oil price assumptions for macroeconomic policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  52. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
  53. Roman S. Leukhin, 2019. "Short-Term Fiscal Projections Using Forecast Combination Approach," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 9-21, June.
  54. Jiaying Peng & Zhenghui Li & Benjamin M. Drakeford, 2020. "Dynamic Characteristics of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation—From the Perspective of Crude Oil Price Influence Mechanism," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
  55. Yanqiong Liu & Zhenghui Li & Yanyan Yao & Hao Dong, 2021. "Asymmetry of Risk Evolution in Crude Oil Market: From the Perspective of Dual Attributes of Oil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-22, July.
  56. Bos, Martijn & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Oil returns and volatility: The role of mergers and acquisitions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 62-69.
  57. Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil market returns: Enhanced moving average technical indicators," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  58. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
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  59. Gonzato, Luca & Sgarra, Carlo, 2021. "Self-exciting jumps in the oil market: Bayesian estimation and dynamic hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  60. Qingqing Hu & Tinghui Li & Xue Li & Hao Dong, 2021. "Dynamic Characteristics of Oil Attributes and Their Market Effects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-22, June.
  61. Dong, Minyi & Chang, Chun-Ping & Gong, Qiang & Chu, Yin, 2019. "Revisiting global economic activity and crude oil prices: A wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 134-149.
  62. Li Liu & Zhiyuan Pan & Yudong Wang, 2022. "Shrinking return forecasts," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 641-661, August.
  63. Ren, Xiaohang & Duan, Kun & Tao, Lizhu & Shi, Yukun & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Carbon prices forecasting in quantiles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  64. Anthony Garratt & Shaun P. Vahey & Yunyi Zhang, 2019. "Real‐time forecast combinations for the oil price," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 456-462, April.
  65. Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark, 2017. "Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150years off data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 181-186.
  66. Tian, Guangning & Peng, Yuchao & Meng, Yuhao, 2023. "Forecasting crude oil prices in the COVID-19 era: Can machine learn better?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  67. Pincheira, Pablo & Jarsun, Nabil, 2020. "Summary of the Paper Entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 105056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  68. Han, Liyan & Lv, Qiuna & Yin, Libo, 2017. "Can investor attention predict oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 547-558.
  69. Brandt, Michael W. & Gao, Lin, 2019. "Macro fundamentals or geopolitical events? A textual analysis of news events for crude oil," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 64-94.
  70. Meng, Fanyi & Liu, Li, 2019. "Analyzing the economic sources of oil price volatility: An out-of-sample perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 476-486.
  71. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2018. "Comparison between Bayesian and information-theoretic model averaging: Fossil fuels prices example," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 208-251.
  72. Amor Aniss Benmoussa & Reinhard Ellwanger & Stephen Snudden, 2020. "The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil," Staff Working Papers 20-39, Bank of Canada.
  73. Julia S. Mehlitz & Benjamin R. Auer, 2021. "Time‐varying dynamics of expected shortfall in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 895-925, June.
  74. Quintero Otero, Jorge David, 2020. "Not all sectors are alike: Differential impacts of shocks in oil prices on the sectors of the Colombian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  75. Liang, Chao & Xu, Yongan & Wang, Jianqiong & Yang, Mo, 2022. "Whether dimensionality reduction techniques can improve the ability of sentiment proxies to predict stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  76. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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  78. Dai, Zhifeng & Kang, Jie, 2021. "Bond yield and crude oil prices predictability," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
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  80. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Gong, Qiang, 2021. "Terrorist attacks and oil prices: Hypothesis and empirical evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  81. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
  82. Yulian Zhang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "Forecasting Crude Oil Market Crashes Using Machine Learning Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-14, May.
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  85. Naser, Hanan, 2016. "Estimating and forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A data rich model using a dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 75-87.
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  88. Till Weigt & Bernd Wilfling, 2021. "An approach to increasing forecast‐combination accuracy through VAR error modeling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 686-699, July.
  89. Mont'Alverne Duarte, Angelo & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & de Carvalho Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Issler, João Victor, 2021. "Commodity prices and global economic activity: A derived-demand approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
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  104. Zhang, Yaojie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Forecasting crude oil prices with a large set of predictors: Can LASSO select powerful predictors?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 97-117.
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  116. Chao Liang & Yongan Xu & Zhonglu Chen & Xiafei Li, 2023. "Forecasting China's stock market volatility with shrinkage method: Can Adaptive Lasso select stronger predictors from numerous predictors?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3689-3699, October.
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  121. Tumala, Mohammed M. & Salisu, Afees & Nmadu, Yaaba B., 2023. "Climate change and fossil fuel prices: A GARCH-MIDAS analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  122. Marek Kwas & Michał Rubaszek, 2021. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: Looking for a Benchmark," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-13, June.
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  124. Hiroyuki Okawa, 2023. "Markov-Regime Switches in Oil Markets: The Fear Factor Dynamics," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-20, January.
  125. Stavroula P. Fameliti & Vasiliki D. Skintzi, 2020. "Predictive ability and economic gains from volatility forecast combinations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 200-219, March.
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  127. Rubaszek Michal & Karolak Zuzanna & Kwas Marek & Uddin Gazi Salah, 2020. "The role of the threshold effect for the dynamics of futures and spot prices of energy commodities," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-20, December.
  128. Garratt, Anthony & Petrella, Ivan & Zhang, Yunyi, 2023. "Asymmetry and interdependence when evaluating U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  129. Chai, Jian & Xing, Li-Min & Zhou, Xiao-Yang & Zhang, Zhe George & Li, Jie-Xun, 2018. "Forecasting the WTI crude oil price by a hybrid-refined method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 114-127.
  130. Mohsin, Muhammad & Jamaani, Fouad, 2023. "Green finance and the socio-politico-economic factors’ impact on the future oil prices: Evidence from machine learning," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
  131. Yin, Libo & Wang, Yang, 2019. "Forecasting the oil prices: What is the role of skewness risk?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
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