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Measuring Global Real Economic Activity: Do Recent Critiques Hold Up to Scrutiny?

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Cited by:

  1. Giovanni Ricco & Riccardo Degasperi & Seokki S. Hong, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Working Papers 814, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2021_011 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios, 2023. "Oil shocks and investor attention," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 68-81.
  4. David S. Jacks & Martin Stuermer, 2021. "Dry bulk shipping and the evolution of maritime transport costs, 1850–2020," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(2), pages 204-227, July.
  5. Simona Delle Chiaie & Laurent Ferrara & Domenico Giannone, 2022. "Common factors of commodity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 461-476, April.
  6. Kilian, Lutz, 2022. "Facts and fiction in oil market modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  7. Tvedt, Jostein, 2019. "Transport services and the valuation of flexibility over business cycles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 517-528.
  8. Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2023. "Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks to real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  9. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  10. Raghavan, Mala, 2020. "An analysis of the global oil market using SVARMA models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  11. Kilian, Lutz, 2022. "Understanding the estimation of oil demand and oil supply elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
  12. Mont'Alverne Duarte, Angelo & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & de Carvalho Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Issler, João Victor, 2021. "Commodity prices and global economic activity: A derived-demand approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
  13. Walther, Thomas & Klein, Tony & Bouri, Elie, 2018. "Exogenous Drivers of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Volatility – A Mixed Data Sampling Approach to Forecasting," QBS Working Paper Series 2018/02, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
  14. Güntner, Jochen & Öhlinger, Peter, 2022. "Oil price shocks and the hedging benefit of airline investments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  15. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2022. "Oil shocks and global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  16. Li, Zheng-Zheng & Meng, Qin & Zhang, Linling & Lobont, Oana-Ramona & Shen, Yijuan, 2023. "How do rare earth prices respond to economic and geopolitical factors?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
  17. Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  18. Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 828-844, October.
  19. Rodrigo da Silva Souza & Leonardo Bornacki Mattos, 2022. "Oil price shocks and global liquidity: macroeconomic effects on the Brazilian real," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 761-781, October.
  20. Azhgaliyeva, Dina & Kapsalyamova, Zhanna & Mishra, Ranjeeta, 2022. "Oil price shocks and green bonds: An empirical evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  21. Lomonosov, Daniil & Polbin, Andrey & Fokin, Nikita, 2020. "Влияние Шоков Мировой Деловой Активности, Предложения Нефти И Спекулятивных Нефтяных Шоков На Экономику Рф [The impact of global economic activity, oil supply and speculative oil shocks on the Russ," MPRA Paper 106019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Daniil Lomonosov, 2023. "Shocks of Business Activity and Specific Shocks to Oil Market in DSGE Model of Russian Economy and Their Influence Under Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(4), pages 44-79, December.
  23. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2019. "The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
  24. Jamie L. Cross & Bao H. Nguyen & Trung Duc Tran, 2022. "The role of precautionary and speculative demand in the global market for crude oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 882-895, August.
  25. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "Does drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve help stabilize oil prices?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 673-691, September.
  26. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre, 2021. "A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1276-1295.
  27. Zhang, Yulian & He, Xie & Nakajima, Tadahiro & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2020. "Oil, Gas, or Financial Conditions-Which One Has a Stronger Link with Growth?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  28. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Sweidan, Osama D., 2020. "Do structural shocks in the crude oil market affect biofuel prices?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 183-193.
  29. Mohammed, Mikidadu & Barrales-Ruiz, Jose A., 2020. "Pandemics and Oil Shocks," EconStor Preprints 222268, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  30. Yao Axel Ehouman, 2020. "Do oil-market shocks drive global liquidity?," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-33, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  31. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, volume 45, pages 65-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  32. Funashima, Yoshito, 2020. "Global economic activity indexes revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
  33. Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Topaloglou, Nikolas & Walther, Thomas, 2020. "Asset Classes and Portfolio Diversification: Evidence from a Stochastic Spanning Approach," MPRA Paper 103870, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  34. Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Heterogeneity of beliefs and information rigidity in the crude oil market: Evidence from survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  35. Diaz, Elena Maria & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2021. "GEA tracker: A daily indicator of global economic activity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  36. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Leiva-León, Danilo & Rots, Eyno, 2020. "Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy: A First Assessment of the Coronavirus Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 14484, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  37. Yang, Yang & Zhang, Jiqiang & Chen, Sanpan, 2023. "Information effects of monetary policy announcements on oil price," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
  38. Nong, Huifu & Liu, Hongxiao, 2023. "Measuring the frequency and quantile connectedness between policy categories and global oil price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  39. Sheng, Xin & Kim, Won Joong & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The impacts of oil price volatility on financial stress: Is the COVID-19 period different?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 520-532.
  40. Max Breitenlechner & Riikka Nuutilainen, 2023. "China’s Monetary Policy and the Loan Market: How Strong is the Credit Channel in China?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 555-577, July.
  41. Jihoon Lee & Hong Chong Cho, 2021. "Impact of Structural Oil Price Shock Factors on the Gasoline Market and Macroeconomy in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, February.
  42. Lu Yang & Lei Yang & Kung-Cheng Ho & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2019. "Determinants of the Long-Term Correlation between Crude Oil and Stock Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-15, October.
  43. Davood Poursina & K. Aleks Schaefer & Sidany Hilburn & Tuff Johnson, 2024. "Economic impacts of the Black Sea Grain Initiative," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 457-464, February.
  44. Joscha Beckmann & Mariarosaria Comunale, 2020. "Exchange rate fluctuations and the financial channel in emerging economies," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 83, Bank of Lithuania.
  45. Reinhold Heinlein & Scott M. R. Mahadeo, 2023. "Oil and US stock market shocks: Implications for Canadian equities," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(1), pages 247-287, February.
  46. Lucey, Brian & Ren, Boru, 2021. "Does news tone help forecast oil?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
  47. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Understanding the conditional out-of-sample predictive impact of the price of crude oil on aggregate equity return volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  48. Krzysztof Drachal & Daniel González Cortés, 2022. "Estimation of Lockdowns’ Impact on Well-Being in Selected Countries: An Application of Novel Bayesian Methods and Google Search Queries Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, December.
  49. Krüger, Jens & Ruths Sion, Sebastian, 2019. "Improving oil price forecasts by sparse VAR methods," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 237, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
  50. Lyu, Yongjian & Yi, Heling & Wei, Yu & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Revisiting the role of economic uncertainty in oil price fluctuations: Evidence from a new time-varying oil market model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  51. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C. & Zhang, Huiming, 2021. "The relation between petroleum product prices and crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  52. Xia, Tian & Zhou, Hang, 2023. "Commodity terms of trade co-movement: Global and regional factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  53. Afees A. Salisu & Yinka S. Hammed & Ibrahim Ngananga Ouattara, 2023. "Climate Change, Technology Shocks and the US Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-22, October.
  54. Zeina Alsalman, 2023. "Oil price shocks and US unemployment: evidence from disentangling the duration of unemployment spells in the labor market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 479-511, July.
  55. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2021. "Forecasting selected energy commodities prices with Bayesian dynamic finite mixtures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  56. Asad Dossani & John Elder, 2024. "Uncertainty and investment: Evidence from domestic oil rigs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 323-340, February.
  57. Maryam Ahmadi & Matteo Manera, 2021. "Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries," Working Papers 2021.13, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  58. Turgut Yokuş, 2024. "Early Warning Systems for World Energy Crises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-18, March.
  59. Huang, Wanling & Mollick, Andre Varella, 2020. "Tight oil, real WTI prices and U.S. stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  60. Arampatzidis, Ioannis & Dergiades, Theologos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2021. "Oil and the U.S. stock market: Implications for low carbon policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  61. Alexeev, Michael & Chih, Yao-Yu, 2021. "Energy price shocks and economic growth in the US: A state-level analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  62. Yang, Tianle & Dong, Qingyuan & Du, Min & Du, Qunyang, 2023. "Geopolitical risks, oil price shocks and inflation: Evidence from a TVP–SV–VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
  63. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Huang, Shiangtsz & Lin, Tzu-Yu, 2022. "How do oil prices affect emerging market sovereign bond spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  64. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Can news-based economic sentiment predict bubbles in precious metal markets?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-29, December.
  65. Joscha Beckmann & Mariarosaria Comunale, 2020. "Exchange rate fluctuations and the financial channel in emerging economies," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 83, Bank of Lithuania.
  66. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2023. "Measuring Persistent Global Economic Factors with Output, Commodity Price, and Commodity Currency Data," Working Papers 23-05, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
  67. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2021. "The effect of structural oil shocks on bank systemic risk in the GCC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  68. Shiu‐Sheng Chen & Jen‐Kuan Wang, 2022. "Detecting persistent one‐sided intervention in foreign exchange markets: A simple test," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 23-45, April.
  69. Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "Refining the workhorse oil market model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 130-140, January.
  70. Zhang, Zhikai & He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Geopolitical risk trends and crude oil price predictability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
  71. Rausser, Gordon & Stuermer, Martin, 2020. "A Dynamic Analysis of Collusive Action: The Case of the World Copper Market, 1882-2016," MPRA Paper 104708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  72. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "An observation regarding Hamilton’s recent criticisms of Kilian’s global real economic activity index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
  73. Gozgor, Giray & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2023. "Global supply chain pressure and commodity markets: Evidence from multiple wavelet and quantile connectedness analyses," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  74. Sadeghi, Abdorasoul & Roudari, Soheil, 2022. "Heterogeneous effects of oil structure and oil shocks on stock prices in different regimes: Evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  75. Lian, Ziying & Cai, Jun & Webb, Robert I., 2020. "Oil stocks, risk factors, and tail behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  76. Pham, Thai-Binh & Sala, Hector, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price and risk-premium shocks on Vietnam: Evidence from an over-identifying SVAR analysis," MPRA Paper 96873, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jul 2019.
  77. Clerides, Sofronis & Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Lambertides, Neophytos & Tsouknidis, Dimitris, 2022. "What matters for consumer sentiment in the euro area? World crude oil price or retail gasoline price?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  78. Stolbov, Mikhail & Shchepeleva, Maria, 2022. "Modeling global real economic activity: Evidence from variable selection across quantiles," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
  79. Diaz, Elena Maria & Cunado, Juncal & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2023. "Commodity price shocks, supply chain disruptions and U.S. inflation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
  80. Long, Shaobo & Li, Jieyu & Luo, Tianyuan, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of global economic policy uncertainty on international grain prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
  81. Su, Xianfang, 2020. "Dynamic behaviors and contributing factors of volatility spillovers across G7 stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  82. Martin Enilov & Giorgio Fazio & Atanu Ghoshray, 2023. "Global connectivity between commodity prices and national stock markets: A time‐varying MIDAS analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2607-2619, July.
  83. Daniil Lomonosov & Andrey Polbin & Nikita Fokin, 2021. "The Impact of Global Economic Activity, Oil Supply and Speculative Oil Shocks on the Russian Economy," HSE Economic Journal, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 227-262.
  84. James D. Hamilton, 2021. "Measuring global economic activity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 293-303, April.
  85. Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden, 2023. "Carpe Diem: Can daily oil prices improve model-based forecasts of the real price of crude oil?," LCERPA Working Papers bm0141, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
  86. Chen, Yong & Liu, Dingming & Zhuang, Ziguan, 2023. "The spillover effects of China's monetary policy shock: Evidence from B&R countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  87. Jamie L. Cross & Bao H. Nguyen & Trung Duc Tran, 2020. "The role of precautionary and speculative demand in the global market for crude oil," CAMA Working Papers 2020-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  88. Alina Stundziene & Vaida Pilinkiene & Jurgita Bruneckiene & Andrius Grybauskas & Mantas Lukauskas, 2023. "Nowcasting Economic Activity Using Electricity Market Data: The Case of Lithuania," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, May.
  89. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2021. "The impact of extreme structural oil-price shocks on clean energy and oil stocks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
  90. Rubaszek, Michał, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 531-546.
  91. Walther, Thomas & Klein, Tony & Bouri, Elie, 2019. "Exogenous drivers of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency volatility – A mixed data sampling approach to forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  92. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Mohammed, Mikidadu, 2021. "Financial regimes and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  93. Aharon, David Y. & Azman Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf & Kallir, Ido, 2023. "Oil price shocks and inflation: A cross-national examination in the ASEAN5+3 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  94. Gilbert, Christopher L., 2023. "The impact of the Ukraine conflict on world grains prices," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334525, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
  95. Krzysztof Drachal, 2022. "Forecasting the Crude Oil Spot Price with Bayesian Symbolic Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-29, December.
  96. Karol Szafranek & Michał Rubaszek, 2024. "The European energy crisis and the US natural gas market dynamics. A structural VAR investigation," KAE Working Papers 2024-099, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
  97. Rubaszek, Michał & Szafranek, Karol & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2021. "The dynamics and elasticities on the U.S. natural gas market. A Bayesian Structural VAR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  98. Tvedt, Jostein & Hovi, Inger Beate, 2024. "Container shipping: A market equilibrium perspective on freight rates formation post-Covid-19," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
  99. Amor Aniss Benmoussa & Reinhard Ellwanger & Stephen Snudden, 2020. "The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil," Staff Working Papers 20-39, Bank of Canada.
  100. Banerjee, Joshua J., 2024. "Inflationary oil shocks, fiscal policy, and debt dynamics: New evidence from oil-importing OECD economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  101. Scott M. R. Mahadeo & Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi, 2019. "Tracing the Genesis of Contagion in the Oil-Finance Nexus," CESifo Working Paper Series 7925, CESifo.
  102. Alsalman, Zeina & Herrera, Ana María & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2023. "Oil news shocks and the U.S. stock market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
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