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The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve Across Countries and Time

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Martin Motl, 2019. "The inverted yield curve in the USA: How much time is left until a recession?," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - May 2019, pages 13-19, Czech National Bank.
  2. Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2022. "Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 9-22.
  3. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Low Interest Rates and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve," Working Papers 20-24R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 21 Dec 2021.
  4. Chris Florakis & Gianluigi Giorgioni & Alexandros Kostakis & Costas Milas, 2012. "The Impact of Stock Market Illiquidity on Real UK GDP Growth," Working Paper series 65_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  5. Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2020. "Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-05, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
  6. Christos Argyropoulos & Bertrand Candelon & Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2020. "Toward a Macroprudential Regulatory Framework for Mutual Funds," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2020_008, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
  7. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
  8. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2010. "Yield spreads as predictors of economic activity: a real-time VAR analysis," Working Papers 1008, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  9. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The US Term Structure and Return Volatility in Global REIT Markets," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(3), pages 84-109, September.
  10. Angela Abbate & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Macroeconomic activity and risk indicators: an unstable relationship," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1756, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  11. Dungey, Mardi & Matei, Marius & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2020. "Examining stress in Asian currencies: A perspective offered by high frequency financial market data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  12. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2021. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 341-362, November.
  13. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2022. "Some international evidence on the causal impact of the yield curve," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
  14. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2018. "The Institute of Financial Economics Financial Stress Index (IFEFSI) for Lebanon," MPRA Paper 116054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "The predictive power of the yield spread for future economic expansions: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 181-195.
  16. Michael T. Kiley, 2023. "Recession Signals and Business Cycle Dynamics: Tying the Pieces Together," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-008, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2013. "Predicting severe simultaneous recessions using yield spreads as leading indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1032-1043.
  18. Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Rudi Steinbach, 2020. "Forecasting output growth using a DSGE-based decomposition of the South African yield curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 351-378, January.
  19. Marcio Santetti, 2023. "A time-varying finance-led model for U.S. business cycles," Papers 2310.05153, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
  20. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Naifar, Nader & Nasreen, Samia, 2023. "Financial stability and monetary policy reaction: Evidence from the GCC countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 396-405.
  21. Lorenzo Boldrini & Eric Hillebrand, 2015. "The Forecasting Power of the Yield Curve, a Supervised Factor Model Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2015-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  22. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
  23. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stan Hurn, 2018. "Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 966-987, November.
  24. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2019. "Time-varying predictive content of financial variables in forecasting GDP growth in the G-7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 211-222.
  25. Chatelais, Nicolas & Stalla-Bourdillon, Arthur & Chinn, Menzie D., 2023. "Forecasting real activity using cross-sectoral stock market information," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  26. Parley Ruogu Yang, 2020. "Using the yield curve to forecast economic growth," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1057-1080, November.
  27. Hafsa Hina & Henna Ahsan & Hania Afzal, 2022. "The Information in the Yield Spread for the Recession in the Case of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2022:11, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  28. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Hang Thi Thu Vu, 2021. "The Relationship between Yield Curve and Economic Activity: An Analysis of G7 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-23, February.
  29. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
  30. Boukhatem, Jamel & Sekouhi, Hayfa, 2017. "What does the bond yield curve tell us about Tunisian economic activity?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 295-303.
  31. McMillan, David G., 2021. "When and why do stock and bond markets predict US economic growth?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 331-343.
  32. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Maria Matthaiou & Efthymia Chrysanthidou, 2015. "Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 635-645, April.
  33. Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Signal Recessions? New Evidence from an International Panel Data Analysis," AMSE Working Papers 2013, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
  34. Sun, Xiaojin & Tsang, Kwok Ping, 2023. "Yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from a DSGE model with housing," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  35. Ang, James & Smedema, Adam, 2011. "Financial flexibility: Do firms prepare for recession?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 774-787, June.
  36. Francis Bismans & Reynald Majetti, 2013. "Forecasting recessions using financial variables: the French case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 419-433, April.
  37. Mei-Chih Wang & Pao-Lan Kuo & Chan-Sheng Chen & Chien-Liang Chiu & Tsangyao Chang, 2020. "Yield Spread and Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-14, May.
  38. Petri Kuosmanen & Juuso Vataja, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97, April.
  39. Petri Kuosmanen & Juuso Vataja, 2017. "The return of financial variables in forecasting GDP growth in the G-7," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 259-277, August.
  40. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97.
  41. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2020. "The yield spread's ability to forecast economic activity: What have we learned after 30 years of studies?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 221-232.
  42. Florackis, Chris & Giorgioni, Gianluigi & Kostakis, Alexandros & Milas, Costas, 2014. "On stock market illiquidity and real-time GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 210-229.
  43. Layal MansourIshrakieh & Leila Dagher & Sadika El Hariri, 2020. "A financial stress index for a highly dollarized developing country : The case of Lebanon," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 43-52.
  44. Kuosmanen, Petri & Rahko, Jaana & Vataja, Juuso, 2019. "Predictive ability of financial variables in changing economic circumstances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 37-47.
  45. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The US Term Structure and Return Volatility in Global REIT Markets," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(3), pages 84-109, September.
  46. Nicolas Chatelais & Menzie Chinn & Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon, 2022. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Filtered Signals from a Stock Market Cross Section," Working papers 903, Banque de France.
  47. Samuel Carrasco & Luis Ceballos & Jessica Mena, 2016. "Estimación de la estructura de tasas de interés en Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(1), pages 58-75, April.
  48. David G. McMillan, 2021. "Predicting GDP growth with stock and bond markets: Do they contain different information?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3651-3675, July.
  49. Kuosmanen, Petri & Nabulsi, Nasib & Vataja, Juuso, 2015. "Financial variables and economic activity in the Nordic countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 368-379.
  50. De Pace, Pierangelo & Weber, Kyle D., 2016. "The time-varying leading properties of the high yield spread in the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 203-230.
  51. Riza Demirer & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The U.S. term structure and return volatility in emerging stock markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 687-707, October.
  52. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2014. "Credit Indicators as Predictors of Economic Activity: A Real‐Time VAR Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 545-564, March.
  53. Martin Motl, 2023. "The inverted yield curve: economic recession on the horizon," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - April 2023, pages 13-19, Czech National Bank.
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