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Investigating survivorship bias : The case of the 1918 flu pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Joël Floris
  • Laurent Kaiser
  • Harald Mayr
  • Kaspar Staub
  • Ulrich Woitek

Abstract

Estimates of the effect of fetal health shocks may suffer from survivorship bias. The fetal origins literature seemingly agrees that survivorship bias is innocuous in the sense that it induces a bias toward zero. Arguably, however, selective mortality can imply a bias away from zero. In the case of the 1918 flu pandemic, a suppressed immune system may have been protective against the most severe consequences of infection. We use historical birth records from the maternity hospital of Bern, Switzerland, to evaluate this possibility. Our results suggest that a careful consideration of survivorship bias is imperative for the evaluation of the 1918 flu pandemic and other fetal health shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Joël Floris & Laurent Kaiser & Harald Mayr & Kaspar Staub & Ulrich Woitek, 2019. "Investigating survivorship bias : The case of the 1918 flu pandemic," ECON - Working Papers 316, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Mar 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:zur:econwp:316
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bernhard, Marco & Leuch, Corina & Kordi, Maryam & Gruebner, Oliver & Matthes, Katarina L. & Floris, Joël & Staub, Kaspar, 2023. "From pandemic to endemic: Spatial-temporal patterns of influenza-like illness incidence in a Swiss canton, 1918–1924," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fetal origins; 1918 flu pandemic; survivorship bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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