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Reformen im Niedriglohnsektor: Eine integrierte CGE-Mikrosimulationsstudie der Arbeitsangebots- und Beschäftigungseffekte

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Author Info

  • Franz, Wolfgang
  • Guertzgen, Nicole
  • Schubert, Stefanie
  • Clauss, Markus

Abstract

Ziel dieses Beitrags ist die Quantifizierung der mit der Einführung des Arbeitslosengeldes II verbundenen Arbeitsangebots- und Beschäftigungseffekte. Zusätzlich wird ein Reformszenario simuliert, welches die Anreizstruktur im Niedriglohnbereich verbessern soll. Methodisch wird ein Mikrosimulationsmodell mit einem allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodell kombiniert. Dieses Vorgehen vereint die Vorteile der Mikrosimulation durch die detaillierte Berücksichtigung der Haushalte auf Basis der Daten des Sozioökonomischen Panels mit den Vorteilen eines allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodells. So werden neben den Erstrundeneffekten auch Rückkopplungseffekte aufgrund von Preisänderungen mit eingeschlossen. Für die Hartz IV-Reform lässt sich auf Basis der Simulationsergebnisse ein geringfügiger Beschäftigungsgewinn in Höhe von 45.000 Personen quantifizieren. Demgegenüber errechnet sich für das alternative Szenario, welches eine Absenkung der Regelsätze sowie der Transferentzugsquote vorsieht, ein Beschäftigungsgewinn von 190.000 Personen. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 07-085.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:7097

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Keywords: Mikrosimulation; CGE-Modelle; Arbeitsangebot;

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Cited by:
  1. Boss, Alfred & Christensen, Björn & Schrader, Klaus, 2010. "Die Hartz IV-Falle: Wenn Arbeit nicht mehr lohnt," Kiel Discussion Papers 474/475, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  2. Stefan Boeters & Michael Feil, 2009. "Heterogeneous Labour Markets in a Microsimulation–AGE Model: Application to Welfare Reform in Germany," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 305-335, May.
  3. Andrey Launov & Klaus Wälde, 2010. "Estimating Incentive and Welfare Effects of Non-Stationary Unemployment Benefits," CESifo Working Paper Series 3069, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Krebs, Tom & Scheffel, Martin, 2010. "A macroeconomic model for the evaluation of labor market reforms," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-050, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  5. repec:ese:iserwp:2009-02 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2010. "Die Schweiz als Vorbild? Bemerkungen zur Diskussion um eine Reform des deutschen Gesundheitswesens," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2010 2010-15, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  7. Caliendo, Marco, 2009. "Income support systems, labor market policies and labor supply: the German experience," Working Paper Series 2009:26, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.

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