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Empirical macromodels under test: a comparative simulation study of the employment effects of a revenue neutral cut in social security contributions

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  • Buscher, Herbert S.
  • Buslei, Hermann
  • Göggelmann, Klaus
  • Koschel, Henrike
  • Ramb, Fred
  • Schmidt, Tobias F. N.
  • Steiner, Viktor
  • Winker, Peter

Abstract

In the paper we simulate a revenue-neutral cut in the social security contribution rate using five different types of macro- / microeconomic models, namely two models based on time-series data where the labour market is modelled basically demand oriented, two models of the class of computable equilibrium models which are supply oriented and finally a firm specific model for international tax burden comparisons. Our primary interest is in the employment effects the models predict due to the cut in the contribution rate. It turns out that qualitatively all models considered predict an increase in employment three years after the cut. But the employment effects differ considerably in magnitude, which follows immediately from the different behavioral assumptions underlying the different models. -- In dem Beitrag wird der Beschäftigungseffekt infolge einer aufkommensneutralen Senkung der Sozialversicherungsbeiträge simuliert. Zu diesem Zweck werden fünf unterschiedliche ökonomische Modelle verwendet, namentlich zwei Modelle, die auf Zeitreihendaten aufbauen und in denen der Arbeitsmarkt überwiegend von der Nachfrageseite dominiert wird, zwei Modelle aus der Klasse der computable equilibrium models, die typischerweise angebotsorientiert sind, und ein mikroökonomisches, firmenspezifisches Steuerbelastungsvergleichsmodell. Alle Simulationsergebnisse der Modelle weisen auf einen, wenngleich teilweise kleinen, positiven Beschäftigungseffekt hin, der sich allerdings beträchtlich in seiner Größenordnung unterscheidet. Dies ist eine unmittelbare Folge aus den unterschiedlichen Verhaltensannahmen, die den einzelnen Modellen unterliegen.

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 98-40.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5211

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  1. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521319867.
  2. Christopher A. Pissarides, 1997. "The Impact of Employment Tax Cuts on Unemployment and Wages: The Role of Unemployment Benefits and Tax Structure," CEP Discussion Papers dp0361, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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Cited by:
  1. Feil, Michael & Klinger, Sabine & Zika, Gerd, 2006. "Sozialabgaben und Beschäftigung : Simulationen mit drei makroökonomischen Modellen," IAB Discussion Paper 200622, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  2. Nico Pestel & Eric Sommer, 2013. "Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: Efficient, but Regressive?," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 624, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).

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