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Empirical macromodels under test : a comparative simulation study of the employment effects of a revenue neutral cut in social security contributions

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Author Info
Buscher, Herbert S.
Buslei, Hermann
Göggelmann, Klaus
Koschel, Henrike
Ramb, Fred
Schmidt, Tobias F. N.
Steiner, Viktor
Winker, Peter

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Abstract

In the paper we simulate a revenue-neutral cut in the social security contribution rate using five different types of macro- / microeconomic models, namely two models based on time-series data where the labour market is modelled basically demand oriented, two models of the class of computable equilibrium models which are supply oriented and finally a firm specific model for international tax burden comparisons. Our primary interest is in the employment effects the models predict due to the cut in the contribution rate. It turns out that qualitatively all models considered predict an increase in employment three years after the cut. But the employment effects differ considerably in magnitude, which follows immediately from the different behavioral assumptions underlying the different models. -- In dem Beitrag wird der Beschäftigungseffekt infolge einer aufkommensneutralen Senkung der Sozialversicherungsbeiträge simuliert. Zu diesem Zweck werden fünf unterschiedliche ökonomische Modelle verwendet, namentlich zwei Modelle, die auf Zeitreihendaten aufbauen und in denen der Arbeitsmarkt überwiegend von der Nachfrageseite dominiert wird, zwei Modelle aus der Klasse der computable equilibrium models, die typischerweise angebotsorientiert sind, und ein mikroökonomisches, firmenspezifisches Steuerbelastungsvergleichsmodell. Alle Simulationsergebnisse der Modelle weisen auf einen, wenngleich teilweise kleinen, positiven Beschäftigungseffekt hin, der sich allerdings beträchtlich in seiner Größenordnung unterscheidet. Dies ist eine unmittelbare Folge aus den unterschiedlichen Verhaltensannahmen, die den einzelnen Modellen unterliegen.

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 98-40.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5211

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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  1. Göggelmann, Klaus & Franz, Wolfgang & Winker, Peter, 1997. "Einige Wirkungen von steuerlichen Umfinanzierungsmaßnahmen in einem makroökonometrischen Ungleichgewichtsmodell für die westdeutsche Volkswirtschaft," ZEW Discussion Papers 97-19, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Pissarides, Christopher A., 1998. "The impact of employment tax cuts on unemployment and wages; The role of unemployment benefits and tax structure," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-183, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hans Fehr, 1997. "Belastungswirkungen der aktuellen Reformvorschläge zur Einkommensbesteuerung und zur Alterssicherung," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 66(3-4), pages 362-381.
  4. Myers, Stewart C, 1984. " The Capital Structure Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 575-92, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Capros, P. & Karadeloglou, P. & Mentzas, G., 1990. "An empirical assessment of macroeconometric and CGE approaches in policy modeling," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 557-585. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-51, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fair, Ray C & Jaffee, Dwight M, 1972. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 497-514, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Franz, Wolfgang & Konig, Heinz, 1990. "A disequilibrium approach to unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(2-3), pages 413-422, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lans Bovenberg, A. & de Mooij, Ruud A., 1994. "Environmental taxes and labor-market distortions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 655-683, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Myers, Stewart C., 1984. "Capital structure puzzle," Working papers 1548-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
  11. de Bovenberg, A Lans & Mooij, Ruud A, 1994. "Environmental Levies and Distortionary Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1085-89, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Entorf, Horst & König, Heinz & Pohlmeier, Winfried, . "Labour Utilisation and Non-Wage Labour Costs in a Disequilibrium Macro Framework," IVS discussion paper series 417, Institut für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik (IVS), University of Mannheim.
  13. Stewart C. Myers, 1984. "Capital Structure Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 1393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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