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New Estimates of the Duration and Risk of Unemployment for West-Germany

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  • Wilke, Ralf A.

Abstract

This paper analyzes changes in the risk of unemployment and changes in the distribution of unemployment duration for the 26 to 41 years old working population in West-Germany during the 1980ties and 1990ties. The comprehensive IAB employment subsample 1975- 1997 is used for the analysis. It contains employment and unemployment trajectories of about 500.000 individuals from West-Germany. The application of flexible nonparametric estimators yields results which are less sensitive to misspecification as it is often the case for parametric hazard rate models. By conditioning on several observable variables such gender, education, marital status etc. we identify significant differences in the first three quintiles of the distribution of the length of unemployment duration. A large share of long term unemployment with only few exits to employment is observed in almost any of the segments. The analysis also considers general evolutions over time and variations along the business cycle. The paper therefore provides a collection of detailed stylized facts about the distribution of unemployment durations in West-Germany during the past two decades. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 04-26.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:1853

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Keywords: risk of unemployment; duration of unemployment; German register data; nonparametric analysis;

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  1. Hunt, Jennifer, 1995. "The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 88-120, January.
  2. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2000. "Duration Models: Specification, Identification, and Multiple Durations," MPRA Paper 9446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Wilke, Ralf A., 2004. "Unemployment Durations in West-Germany Before and After the Reform of the Unemployment Compensation System During the 1980s," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-24, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  4. Lauer, Charlotte, 2003. "Education and Unemployment: A French-German Comparison," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-34, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
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