The Euro-project at risk
AbstractIn contrast to Robert Mundell's Optimum Currency Area theory and his recommendation of forming a monetary union, the economic fundamentals of Euro area member countries have not harmonized. The opposite holds: the Euro core countries - most of all Germany, but also the Netherlands and Finland - increased productivity growth while limiting nominal wage growth. However, Mediterranean countries - particularly Greece, but also Spain, Portugal, and Italy - have dramatically lost international competitiveness. Although the overall balance of payments for the Euro area at large is almost balanced, internal disequilibria are skyrocketing and default risk premiums and tensions within the Euro area are rising, thus jeopardizing the stability of the monetary union. The findings confirm that a common currency without fiscal union is inherently unstable. The international financial and economic crisis has merely triggered events which highlight this instability. The paper discusses three possible scenarios for the future of the Euro: a laissez faire approach, a bailout, and finally an exit strategy for the Mediterranean countries, or an organized exit by a group of core countries led by Germany, forming their own smaller monetary union. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn in its series ZEI Working Papers with number B 04-2010.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Optimum currency areas; monetary union; risk spreads; central banking; exchange rates; fiscal policy;
Other versions of this item:
- Wilhem Hankel & Andreas Hauskrecht & Bryan Stuart, 2010. "The Euro-Project at Risk," Working Papers 2010-05, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
- Hauskrecht, Andreas & Stuart, Bryan & Hankel, Wilhelm, 2010. "The Euro-Project at Risk," MPRA Paper 23750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-07-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-07-13 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2011-07-13 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-07-13 (Monetary Economics)
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