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Identifying Volatility Signals from Time-Varying Simultaneous Stock Market Interaction

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  • Strohsal, Till
  • Weber, Enzo

Abstract

In the academic literature, the economic interpretation of stock market volatility is inherently ambivalent, being considered an indicator of either information flow or uncertainty. We show in a stylized model economy that both views suggest volatility-dependent cross-market spillovers. If higher volatility in one market leads to higher (lower) reactions in another market, volatility reflects information (uncertainty). We introduce a simultaneous time-varying coefficient model, where structural ARCH-type variances serve two purposes: governing the time variation of spillovers and ensuring statistical identification. The model is applied to data of US and further stock markets. Indeed, we find strong nonlinear, volatility-dependent effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Strohsal, Till & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Identifying Volatility Signals from Time-Varying Simultaneous Stock Market Interaction," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79903, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79903
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    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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