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Surprise Volume and Heteroskedasticity in Equity Market Returns

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Author Info

  • Niklas Wagner
  • Terry A. Marsh

Abstract

Heteroskedasticity in returns may be explainable by trading volume. We use different volume variables, including surprise volume---i.e. unexpected above-average trading activity---which is derived from uncorrelated volume innovations. Assuming weakly exogenous volume, we extend the Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) model by an asymmetric GARCH in-mean specification following Golsten et al. (1993). Model estimation for the U.S. as well as six large equity markets shows that surprise volume provides superior model fit and helps to explain volatility persistence as well as excess kurtosis. Surprise volume reveals a significant positive market risk premium, asymmetry, and a surprise volume effect in conditional variance. The findings suggest that, e.g., a surprise volume shock (breakdown)---i.e. large (small) contemporaneous and small (large) lagged surprise volume---relates to increased (decreased) conditional market variance and return.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0409009.

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Date of creation: 15 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0409009

Note: Type of Document - none; prepared on win; to print on hp;
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: ARCH; trading volume; return volume dependence; asymmetric volatility; market risk premium; leverage effect;

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Cited by:
  1. Jianxin Wang, 2007. "Foreign Ownership and Volatility Dynamics of Indonesian Stocks," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 201-210, September.
  2. Heejoon Han & Dennis Kristensen, 2012. "Asymptotic Theory for the QMLE in GARCH-X Models with Stationary and Non-Stationary Covariates," CREATES Research Papers 2012-25, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. José Dias Curto & João Tomaz & José Castro Pinto, 2009. "A new approach to bad news effects on volatility: the multiple-sign-volume sensitive regime EGARCH model (MSV-EGARCH)," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 23-36, April.
  4. Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Fabien Collado & Ulysse Galiay, 2011. "The dynamics of the volatility – trading volume relationship: New evidence from developed and emerging markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2569-2583.

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