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Das Scheitern junger Betriebe: Ein Überlebensdauermodell auf Basis des IAB-Betriebspanels

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  • Falck, Oliver

Abstract

In diesem Beitrag werden die Auswirkungen sektoraler, regionaler sowie betrieblicher Determinanten auf das Scheitern junger Betriebe mit Hilfe eines ökonometrischen Überlebensdauer-Ansatzes analysiert. Dabei findet ein accelerated failure time model mit zugrunde liegender log-logistischer Verteilung Anwendung. Datengrundlage bildet das IAB-Betriebspanel, eine repräsentative Betriebsbefragung des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB). In die Analyse gehen junge Betriebe im privaten Sektor (westdeutsche Bundesländer, Zeitraum 1993-2002) ein. Die Schließungswahrscheinlichkeit junger Betriebe ist in Sektoren mit hoher mindestoptimaler Betriebsgröße und einer hohen Anzahl von Gründungen überdurchschnittlich hoch. Darüber hinaus spielen regionale Faktoren eine zentrale Rolle. Auf betrieblicher Ebene is die Betriebsgröße der beste Prädiktor für die Schließungswahrscheinlichkeit. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics in its series Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe with number V-32-05.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:upadvr:v3205

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Postal: 94030 Passau
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Fax: ++49 (0)851 509 1005
Web page: http://www.wiwi.uni-passau.de/index.php?L=2
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Keywords: Scheitern junger Betriebe; Ereignisanalyse; Überlebensdaueranalyse; Hazardratenmodell; log-logistische Hazardfunktion;

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References

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  1. P.A. Geroski & José Mata & Pedro Portugal, 2003. "Founding Conditions and the Survival of New Firms," Working Papers w200301, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  2. Geroski, P. A., 1995. "What do we know about entry?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 421-440, December.
  3. Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J., 1989. "Variation In Producer Turnover Across U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Papers 12-89-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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  9. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May.
  10. José Mata & Pedro Portugal, 2001. "The Survival of New Domestic and Foreign Owned Firms," Working Papers w200101, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  11. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro, 1994. "Life Duration of New Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 227-45, September.
  12. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro & Guimaraes, Paulo, 1995. "The survival of new plants: Start-up conditions and post-entry evolution," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 459-481, December.
  13. Wagner, Joachim, 1994. "The Post-entry Performance of New Small Firms in German Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 141-54, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Anne Otto & Dirk Fornahl, 2009. "Cohesion Policy:Methodology And Indicators Towards Common Approach," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, JUNE.

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