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Endogene Wachstumstheorie und wirtschaftspolitische Implikaktionen für Entwicklungsländer: The missing link

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  • Zattler, Jürgen K.
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    Abstract

    Die Akkumulation von Wissen ist für den Prozeß der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung von zentraler Bedeutung. Diese These wurde in den letzten 10 Jahren durch eine Vielzahl von Beiträgen der sog. Endogenen Wachstumstheorie (EWT) begründet. Die vorliegenden Arbeiten weisen jedoch zwei wesentliche Lücken auf. Zum einen sind ihre wirtschaftspolitischen Implikationen von geringem praktischem Wert.1 Dieses Defizit wiegt um so schwerer, als empirische Untersuchungen darauf hindeuten, daß durch die staatliche Politik Unterschiede in der Wachstumsdynamik teilweise erklärt werden können.2 Außerdem konzentrierte sich die bisherige Forschung auf die Situation der heute fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften. Relativ wenig Untersuchungen beziehen sich auf die Frage, wie sich Wachstumsprozesse von Volkswirtschaften vollziehen, die in der Ausgangssituation relativ wenig entwickelt sind. Die vorliegende Arbeit soll einen Beitrag zur Überwindung dieser Defizite leisten. In Teil 1 werden die wesentlichen, für die Situation von Entwicklungsländern relevanten empirischen Fakten dargestellt; außerdem wird geprüft, inwieweit die Ansätze der EWT mit diesen Fakten vereinbar sind. Diese Herangehensweise erlaubt es zum einen, die verschiedenen Modelle der EWT hinsichtlich ihres Erklärungswertes für die spezielle Situation von Entwicklungsländern zu bewerten. Zum anderen wird ein Theorieansatz innerhalb der EWT identifiziert, der den Fakten relativ nahe kommt, nämlich die Technologieadaptationsmodelle. Jedoch weisen auch diese Modelle wesentliche Unvereinbarkeiten mit den stilisierten Fakten auf, denen in den folgenden zwei Teilen nachgegangen wird. Die Teile 2 und 3 befassen sich mit zwei theoretischen Konzepten: dem Konzept der externen Effekte, das für die Begründung endogenen Wachstums von entscheidender Bedeutung ist, und dem Transaktionskostenkonzept. Es wird verdeutlicht werden, daß die Schwächen der EWT in einem unzulänglichen Verständnis dieser beiden Konstrukte begründet liegen. Auf Grundlage dieser Analyse wird es möglich, den Prozeß der Technologieadaptation wohlfahrtsökonomisch korrekt zu fassen. Dies erfolgt in zwei Schritten. Teil 4 konzentriert sich auf wirtschaftspolitische Implikationen unter Abstraktion des Faktors 'Unsicherheit'. In Teil 5 werden die wirtschaftspolitischen Ansatzpunkte dargestellt, die sich aus der Existenz von Unsicherheit ergeben. Der in Teil 5 entwickelte Ansatz wird beispielhaft auf die Frage angewandt, welche Auswirkungen die WTO-Regelungen auf die Technologieadaptation haben (Teil 6). 1 Dementsprechend stellt z.B. Barro/Sala-i-Martin (1995, S. 8) fest: '... the relation between government policies and growth is a priority area for economic research.' 2 'In most cases, the empirical work does not provide robust estimates for the effects of a specific governmental policy on growth, but it does show that the overall package of policies matters a lot.' Vgl. Barro/Sala-i-Martin (1995, S. 8). --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Justus Liebig University Giessen, Institute for Development Economics in its series Discussion Papers in Development Economics with number 27.

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    Date of creation: 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:jluide:27

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