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Is there a threat of self-reinforcing deflation in the euro area? A view through the lens of the Phillips curve

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  • Wieland, Volker
  • Wolters, Maik

Abstract

The recent decline in euro area inflation has triggered new calls for additional monetary stimulus by the ECB in order to counter the threat of a self-reinforcing deflation and recession spiral. This note reviews the available evidence on inflation expectations, output gaps and other factors driving current inflation through the lens of the Phillips curve. It also draws a comparison to the Japanese experience with deflation in the late 1990s and the evidence from Japan concerning the output-inflation nexus at low trend inflation. The note concludes from this evidence that the risk of a self-reinforcing deflation remains very small. Thus, the ECB best await the impact of the long-term refinancing operations decided in June that have the potential to induce substantial monetary accommodation once implemented for the first time in September.

Suggested Citation

  • Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2014. "Is there a threat of self-reinforcing deflation in the euro area? A view through the lens of the Phillips curve," Kiel Policy Brief 79, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:79
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    Cited by:

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    2. John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2016. "Finding the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate in a Fog of Policy Deviations," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 147-154, July.
    3. Cavallo, Antonella & Ribba, Antonio, 2014. "Euro area inflation as a predictor of national inflation rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1048-1065.
    4. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2014. "Mehr Vertrauen in Marktprozesse. Jahresgutachten 2014/15 [More confidence in market processes. Annual Report 2014/15]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201415.
    5. Wolters, Maik H., 2014. "Wie wahrscheinlich ist eine "Deflationsspirale" im Euroraum? Eine Analyse anhand einer Phillips-Kurve," Kiel Insight 2014.8, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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