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Treibt Spekulation die Rohstoffpreise in die Höhe?

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  • Finger, Karl
  • Reitz, Stefan

Abstract

[Einleitung] Die enormen Preisanstiege auf fast allen Märkten für Rohstoffe und landwirtschaftliche Grunderzeugnisse werden in Politik und Öffentlichkeit mit der zunehmenden Spekulationstätigkeit und allgemein der fortschreitenden Finanzialisierung' der Märkte in Verbindung gebracht. Das Interesse der Medien und Öffentlichkeit bezieht sich dabei vornehmlich auf Grundnahrungsmittel und die potenziell negativen Verteilungseffekte der Spekulation. Beispielsweise findet man in der Presse, dass das Engagement von Handelshäusern wie Deutsche Bank oder Allianz auf Rohstoffmärkten hohe Nahrungsmittelpreise für die Bevölkerung in Schwellenländern zur Folge haben. Foodwatch (2013) veröffentlichte einige interne Dokumente beider Handelshäuser, in welchen auf eine mögliche Zunahme von Preisschwankungen und negative Rückwirkungen für Konsumenten und Produzenten nicht nur in Entwicklungsländern hingewiesen wurde. In einem Artikel der Süddeutschen Zeitung wird die Finanzialisierung der Rohstoffmärkte ebenfalls als riskante Fehlentwicklung eingeschätzt, die nur durch stärkere Regulierung einzudämmen sei. Im Gegensatz zur öffentlichen Wahrnehmung sind volkswirtschaftliche Untersuchungen bis heute zu keinem eindeutigen Ergebnis gekommen. Neben den möglichen spekulativen Verzerrungen spielen auch fundamentalorientierte Erklärungen, wie beispielsweise das starke Wirtschaftswachstum der Schwellenländer oder die starke Expansion der globalen Liquidität, für die beobachteten Preisanstiege eine wichtige Rolle. Dabei ist die Frage, ob Preisänderungen durch Spekulation hervorgerufen werden und nicht mehr auf das Zusammenspiel von fundamentalen Angebots- und Nachfragekomponenten reagieren, von hoher volkswirtschaftlicher Bedeutung. Verwerfungen bei der Preisbildung führen zur Fehlallokation der Ressourcen und könnten wirtschaftspolitische Gegenmaßnahmen erfordern. Der vorliegende Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit der Frage, ob destabilisierende Spekulation auf den Rohstoffmärkten tatsächlich nachgewiesen werden kann.

Suggested Citation

  • Finger, Karl & Reitz, Stefan, 2014. "Treibt Spekulation die Rohstoffpreise in die Höhe?," Kiel Policy Brief 71, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:71
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