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Mindestlohn und Beschäftigungsprognose

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  • Groll, Dominik

Abstract

Die Große Koalition aus CDU, CSU und SPD plant laut Koalitionsvertrag vom 27. November 2013 die Einführung eines (zunächst mit Ausnahmen versehenen) flächendeckenden gesetzlichen Mindestlohns von 8,50 Euro je Stunde zum 1. Januar 2015. Dies stellt die Beschäftigungsprognose für Deutschland vor besondere Herausforderungen. Auf der einen Seite ist jeder Versuch, die Beschäftigungseffekte dieser Mindestlohneinführung in einer Prognose zu berücksichtigen, mit erheblicher Unsicherheit behaftet. Auf der anderen Seite würde es jedoch der Tragweite dieser arbeitsmarktpolitischen Maßnahme nicht gerecht werden, wenn auf einen solchen Versuch gänzlich verzichtet würde. Die Einführung des Mindestlohns hat Konsequenzen für viele weitere Bereiche der deutschen Volkswirtschaft, wie z.B. die Einnahmen und Ausgaben der öffentlichen Haushalte. Im Folgenden soll daher ein solcher Versuch unternommen werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Groll, Dominik, 2013. "Mindestlohn und Beschäftigungsprognose," Kiel Insight 2013.19, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:201319
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karl Brenke & Kai-Uwe Müller, 2013. "Gesetzlicher Mindestlohn: kein verteilungspolitisches Allheilmittel," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(39), pages 3-17.
    2. Neumark, David & Wascher, William L., 2007. "Minimum Wages and Employment," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 3(1–2), pages 1-182, March.
    3. Karl Brenke & Gert Wagner, 2013. "Gesetzliche Mindestlöhne: mit der Einführung kommen die Tücken der Umsetzung," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 93(11), pages 751-757, October.
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