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Beschäftigungswirkungen von Lohnsubventionen und Mindestlöhnen - Zur Reform des Niedriglohnsektors in Deutschland


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  • Müller, Kai-Uwe
  • Steiner, Viktor
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    In diesem Beitrag werden die Beschäftigungswirkungen von Lohnsubventionen und eines Mindestlohnes für Deutschland analysiert. Studien zum Mindestlohn im Baugewerbe und Simulationen zu einem allgemeinen Mindestlohn weisen einhellig auf Beschäftigungsverluste durch einen gesetzlichen Mindestlohn für die Bundesrepublik hin. Die Größenordnung hängt vom Mindestlohnniveau, Gütermarktreaktionen und der Reichweite des Mindestlohnes (Einschluss Auszubildender, geringfügig Beschäftigter) ab. Bei einem Mindestlohn von 7,5 € pro Stunde und elastischer Güternachfrage schätzen wir einen Gesamtverlust von ca. 220.000, insbesondere geringfügig Beschäftigten. Evaluationen bestehender Lohnsubventionen finden nur geringe Arbeitsanreizeffekte. Im Beitrag wird alternativ der aufkommensneutral gestaltete 'Beschäftigungsbonus' der geringe Stundenlöhne und nicht niedrige Erwerbseinkommen subventioniert, betrachtet. Dieser würde ein zusätzliches Arbeitsangebot von ca. 80.000 Personen bzw. ein zusätzliches Stundenangebot von etwa 420.000 Vollzeitäquivalenten induzieren. In Kombination mit einem allgemeinen Mindestlohn wären arbeitnehmerseitige Lohnsubventionen ineffektiv. Die Simulationsergebnisse zeigen, dass in diesem Fall arbeitgeberseitige Lohnsubventionen die infolge des Mindestlohnes gestiegenen Arbeitskosten kompensieren und Beschäftigungsverluste im Niedriglohnbereich teilweise verringern können. -- In this contribution employment effects of wage subsidies and a minimum wage are analyzed for Germany. Existing studies for the construction sector and simulations of a statutory minimum wage unanimously point to employment losses of a general minimum wage for Germany. The magnitude of the negative employment effects depends on the minimum wage level, reactions on the goods market and the coverage of the minimum wage (inclusion of apprentices, marginally employed). For a minimum wage of 7.5 € per hour we estimate a total employment loss of 220,000 individuals, mostly in jobs not covered by social security. Evaluations of existing wage subsidies in Germany find only minor labor supply incentives. Here, the revenue-neutral 'employment bonus' which subsidizes small hourly wages and not low wage incomes is considered. The 'employment bonus' would induce an increased labor supply of 80,000 persons at the extensive and 420,000 full-time equivalents at the intensive margin. If an employee-oriented wage subsidy is combined with a statutory minimum wage its labor supply effects were rendered ineffective. Simulation results show that in this case employer-oriented wage subsidies could compensate higher wage costs and partially diminish employment losses induced by the minimum.

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    Paper provided by Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 2011/4.

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    Date of creation: 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20114

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    Keywords: Niedriglohnsektor; Lohnsubvention; Mindestlohn;

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