IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/fribis/012022.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Aktuelle Mikrosimulationsstudien zur Einführung eines partiellen bedingungslosen Grundeinkommens in Deutschland: Eine kritische Analyse

Author

Listed:
  • Spermann, Alexander

Abstract

Mikrosimulationsstudien sind ein empirisches Standardinstrument zur ex ante-Evaluation wirtschaftspolitischer Vorschläge. Der Vorschlag eines bedingungslosen Grundeinkommen für Deutschland wurde in den letzten zwanzig Jahren immer wieder mit diesem Instrument simuliert - und aus fiskalischen Gründen nach Berücksichtigung von Verhaltensanpassungen am Arbeitsmarkt verworfen. Im Jahr 2021 wurden auch Berechnungen zu partiellen Grundeinkommensmodellen in Deutschland vorgelegt. In diesem Beitrag werden die wichtigsten Ergebnisse dargestellt und kritisch analysiert. Es zeigt sich, dass die negativen Beschäftigungseffekte und die fiskalischen Kosten eines partiellen Grundeinkommens durch die Art der Modellierung überzeichnet werden. Der Autor befürwortet weitere Mikrosimulationsstudien mit einer verbesserten Modellierung. Dagegen liefern Mikrosimulationsstudien zur Kindergrundsicherung - einem bedingungslosen Grundeinkommen für Kinder - bereits weitreichende, jedoch noch nicht ausreichende empirische Evidenz für Politikentscheidungen.

Suggested Citation

  • Spermann, Alexander, 2022. "Aktuelle Mikrosimulationsstudien zur Einführung eines partiellen bedingungslosen Grundeinkommens in Deutschland: Eine kritische Analyse," FRIBIS Discussion Paper Series 01-2022, University of Freiburg, Freiburg Institute for Basic Income Studies (FRIBIS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fribis:012022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/251219/1/1794684840.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maximilian Joseph Blömer & Andreas Peichl, 2021. "Microsimulation of Different Variants of an Unconditional Basic Income in Germany," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 121, October.
    2. Arntz, Melanie & Clauss, Markus & Kraus, Margit & Schnabel, Reinhold & Spermann, Alexander & Wiemers, Jürgen, 2007. "Arbeitsangebotseffekte und Verteilungswirkungen der Hartz-IV-Reform," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200710, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Guido W. Imbens, 2015. "Matching Methods in Practice: Three Examples," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 373-419.
    4. Widerquist, Karl, 2005. "A failure to communicate: what (if anything) can we learn from the negative income tax experiments?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 49-81, February.
    5. Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2012. "Accounting for labor demand effects in structural labor supply models," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 129-138.
    6. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017. "The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
    7. Alexander Spermann, 2019. "Basisgeld plus Steuergutschriften statt Hartz IV [Basic Money Plus Tax Credits Instead of Hartz IV]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 99(3), pages 181-188, March.
    8. Bruttel Oliver & Baumann Arne & Dütsch Matthias, 2019. "Beschäftigungseffekte des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns: Prognosen und empirische Befunde," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 237-253, September.
    9. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    10. Patrick Arni & Werner Eichhorst & Nico Pestel & Alexander Spermann & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2014. "Der gesetzliche Mindestlohn in Deutschland: Einsichten und Handlungsempfehlungen aus der Evaluationsforschung," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 134(2), pages 149-182.
    11. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    12. Knabe Andreas & Schöb Ronnie & Thum Marcel, 2020. "Prognosen und empirische Befunde: Wie groß ist die Kluft beim Mindestlohn wirklich?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 25-29, April.
    13. Maximilian Joseph Blömer & Andreas Peichl, 2020. "The ifo Tax and Transfer Behavioral Microsimulation Model," ifo Working Paper Series 335, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    14. Bruttel Oliver & Baumann Arne & Dütsch Matthias, 2019. "Beschäftigungseffekte des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns: Prognosen und empirische Befunde," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 237-253, September.
    15. Hilary Hoynes & Jesse Rothstein, 2019. "Universal Basic Income in the United States and Advanced Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 929-958, August.
    16. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2015. "The path from cause to effect: mastering 'metrics," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 442, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. Peichl Andreas, 2009. "Simulationsmodelle zur ex ante Evaluation von Steuerreformen," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 58(1), pages 127-156, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Edoardo Masset, 2022. "Conflict and Child Mortality in Mali: A Synthetic Control Analysis," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(4), pages 1097-1123, December.
    2. Philip Jung & Anke Hassel & Robert Habeck & Matthias Knuth & Alexander Spermann & Hans Peter Grüner & Maximilian Joseph Blömer & Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl, 2019. "Proposed labor market reforms: Is Hartz IV still sustainable?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(06), pages 03-25, March.
    3. Maximilian Joseph Blömer & Andreas Peichl, 2021. "Microsimulation of Different Variants of an Unconditional Basic Income in Germany," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 121, October.
    4. Echevarría, Cruz A. & Hasancebi, Serhat & García-Enríquez, Javier, 2022. "Economic Effects of Macao’s Integration with Mainland China: A Causal Inference Study," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 179-215.
    5. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    6. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    7. Pavlik, Jamie Bologna & Jahan, Israt & Young, Andrew T., 2023. "Do longer constitutions corrupt?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Arne Heise, 2022. "Mindestlöhne, Beschäftigung und die „Harmonie der Täuschungen“," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 48(1), pages 83-107.
    9. Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo & Helery Tasane, 2023. "Regional Economic Impacts of the Øresund Cross-Border Fixed Link: Cui Bono?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10557, CESifo.
    10. Tomasz Serwach, 2023. "The European Union and within‐country income inequalities. The case of the new member states," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 1890-1939, July.
    11. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2014. "Labour Supply Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling, volume 127, pages 167-221, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    12. Tomasz Serwach, 2022. "The European Union and within-country income inequalities. The case of the New Member States," Working Papers hal-03548416, HAL.
    13. Denti, Daria & Iammarino, Simona, 2022. "Coming Out of the Woods. Do local support services influence the propensity to report sexual violence?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 334-352.
    14. Kässi, Otto, 2022. "The Labor-market Effects of Service Offshoring: A Synthetic Control Approach with High-dimensional Microdata," ETLA Working Papers 97, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    15. Loeffler, Max & Peichl, Andreas & Pestel, Nico & Siegloch, Sebastian & Sommer, Eric, 2014. "Documentation IZA?MOD v3.0: The IZA Policy Simulation Model," IZA Discussion Papers 8553, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    17. Nadine McCloud, 2022. "Does domestic investment respond to inflation targeting? A synthetic control investigation," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 98-134.
    18. Roy Cerqueti & Raffaella Coppier & Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2022. "The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy [Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 46-70.
    19. Massenz, Gabriella, 2023. "On the behavioral effects of tax policy," Other publications TiSEM eb44a9f7-b859-480d-b2e4-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Zhang, Qian & Cheng, Baodong & Diao, Gang & Tao, Chenlu & Wang, Can, 2023. "Does China's natural forest logging ban affect the stability of the timber import trade network?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fribis:012022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wffrede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.