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The fear of float of the Swiss National Bank

Author

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  • Berthold, Kristin
  • Stadtmann, Georg

Abstract

We theoretically examine under which assumptions the impossible trinity holds. We also focus on the most recent Swiss experience and ask, if the SNB gained monetary independence by switching from a fixed to a floating exchange rate system in January 2015. The theoretical examination shows that the impossible trinity holds under the following assumptions: Equality of domestic and foreign real interest rates, the quantity theory of money holds, and that the relative PPP is fulfilled. The empirical analysis reveals that relative PPP does not hold for the Swiss case and it was necessary for the SNB to adopt its monetary policy in accordance with the ECB's expansive monetary policy. The paper shows that for a small open economy, such as Switzerland, it does not play a role for its monetary policy independence whether the central bank implements a fixed or a floating exchange rate system.

Suggested Citation

  • Berthold, Kristin & Stadtmann, Georg, 2018. "The fear of float of the Swiss National Bank," Discussion Papers 404, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:404
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2016. "Negative Rates and Seigniorage: Turning the central bank business model upside down? The special case of the ECB," CEPS Papers 11753, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    4. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo, 2013. "Fear of appreciation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 233-247.
    5. Kristin Berthold & Georg Stadtmann, 2018. "Who put the Holes in the Swiss Cheese? Currency Crisis Under Appreciation Pressure," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 7(1), pages 43-57.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign exchange market; Swiss crisis; impossible trinity; monetary policy independence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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