The Product Life Cycle of Durable Goods
AbstractThe model presented here derives the product life cycle of durable goods. It is based on the idea that the purchase process consists of first purchase and repurchase. First purchase is determined by the market penetration process (diffusion process), while repurchase is the sum of replacement and multiple purchase. The key property of durables goods is to have a mean lifetime in the order of several years. Therefore replacement purchase creates periodic variations of the unit sales (Juglar cycles) having its origin in the initial diffusion process. The theory suggests that there exists two diffusion processes. The first can be described by Bass diffusion and is related to the information spreading process within the social network of potential consumers. The other diffusion process comes into play, when the price of the durable is such, that only those consumers with a sufficient personal income can afford the good. We have to distinguish between a monopoly market and a polypoly/oligopoly market. In the first case periodic variations of the total sales occur caused by the initial Bass diffusion, even when the price is constant. In the latter case the mutual competition between the brands leads with time to a decrease of the mean price. This change is associated with an effective increase of the market volume, which can be interpreted as a diffusion process. Based on an evolutionary approach, it can be shown that the mean price decreases exponentially and the corresponding diffusion process is governed by Gompertz equation (Gompertz diffusion). Most remarkable is that Gibrat's rule of proportionate growth is a direct consequence of the competition between the brands. The model allows a derivation of the lognormal size distribution of product sales and the logistic replacement of durables in competition. A comparison with empirical data suggests that the theory describes the main trend of the product life cycle superimposed by short term events like the introduction of new models. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ZBW - German National Library of Economics in its series EconStor Preprints with number 50530.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Düsternbrooker Weg 120, 24105 Kiel / Neuer Jungfernstieg 21, 20354 Hamburg
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 8814-520
Web page: http://www.econstor.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Consumer Durables; Product Life Cycle; Product Diffusion; Bass Diffusion; Gompertz Diffusion; Replicator Dynamics; Logistic Growth; Evolutionary Economics; Monopoly; Gibrat's Rule; Juglar Cycles;
Other versions of this item:
- M0 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - General
- M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing
- D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
- D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-11-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-COM-2011-11-07 (Industrial Competition)
- NEP-IND-2011-11-07 (Industrial Organization)
- NEP-MKT-2011-11-07 (Marketing)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Banerjee, Anand & Yakovenko, Victor M. & Di Matteo, T., 2006. "A study of the personal income distribution in Australia," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(1), pages 54-59.
- Kaldasch, Joachim, 2011.
"Evolutionary model of an anonymous consumer durable market,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 390(14), pages 2692-2715.
- Joachim Kaldasch, 2013. "Evolutionary Model of a Anonymous Consumer Durable Market," Papers 1306.3395, arXiv.org.
- Victor M. Yakovenko & J. Barkley Rosser, 2009. "Colloquium: Statistical mechanics of money, wealth, and income," Papers 0905.1518, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2009.
- Sergey V. Buldyrev & Jakub Growiec & Fabio Pammolli & Massimo Riccaboni & H. Eugene Stanley, 2007. "The Growth of Business Firms: Facts and Theory," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 574-584, 04-05.
- Anand Banerjee & Victor M. Yakovenko & T. Di Matteo, 2006. "A study of the personal income distribution in Australia," Papers physics/0601176, arXiv.org.
- Growiec, Jakub & Pammolli, Fabio & Riccaboni, Massimo & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2008. "On the size distribution of business firms," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 207-212, February.
- De Fabritiis, Gianni & Riccaboni, Massimo & Pammolli, Fabio, 2003.
"On Size and Growth of Business Firms,"
15866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- De Fabritiis, G. & Pammolli, F. & Riccaboni, M., 2003. "On size and growth of business firms," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 38-44.
- Frank M. Bass & Trichy V. Krishnan & Dipak C. Jain, 1994. "Why the Bass Model Fits without Decision Variables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(3), pages 203-223.
- Steffens, Paul R, 2001. "An Aggregate Sales Model for Consumer Durables Incorporating a Time-Varying Mean Replacement Age," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 63-77, January.
- Zhu Wang, 2008. "Income Distribution, Market Size and the Evolution of Industry," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 542-565, July.
- Kaldasch, Joachim, 2011.
"Evolutionary Model of Non-Durable Markets,"
50531, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
- Joachim Kaldasch, 2011.
"The Experience Curve and the Market Size of Competitive Consumer Durable Markets,"
59749, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
- Kaldasch, Joachim, 2011. "The experience curve and the market size of competitive consumer durable markets," MPRA Paper 33370, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.