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Dynamic Model of Markets of Successive Product Generations

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  • Kaldasch, Joachim

Abstract

A dynamic microeconomic model is presented that establishes the price and unit sales evolution of heterogeneous goods consisting of successive homogenous product generations. It suggests that for a fast growing supply the mean price of the generations are governed by a logistic decline towards a floor price. It is shown that generations of a heterogeneous good are in mutual competition. Their market shares are therefore governed by a Fisher-Pry law while the total unit sales are governed by the lifecycle dynamics of the good. As a result the absolute unit sales of a generation exhibit a characteristic sales peak consisting of a rapid increase followed by a long tail. The presented approach shows that the evolution of successive product generations can be understood as an evolutionary adaptation process. The applicability of the model is confirmed by a comparison with empirical investigations on successive DRAM generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaldasch, Joachim, 2015. "Dynamic Model of Markets of Successive Product Generations," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 10(3), pages 1-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:118689
    DOI: 10.9734/BJEMT/2015/20473
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2011. "Evolutionary model of an anonymous consumer durable market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(14), pages 2692-2715.
    2. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2014. "Evolutionary model of stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 415(C), pages 449-462.
    3. Wonjoon Kim & Jeong-Dong Lee, 2009. "Measuring the Role of Technology-Push and Demand-Pull in the Dynamic Development of the Semiconductor Industry: The Case of the Global DRAM Market," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 83-108, May.
    4. Ralph Siebert, 2002. "Learning by Doing and Multiproduction Effects over the Life Cycle: Evidence from the Semiconductor Industry," CIG Working Papers FS IV 02-23, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
    5. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2015. "Dynamic Model of Markets of Homogenous Non-Durables," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(3), pages 1-12.
    6. Joachim Kaldasch, 2015. "Dynamic Model of the Price Dispersion of Homogeneous Goods," Papers 1509.01216, arXiv.org.
    7. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - A 25-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 519-545.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Product diffusion; multiple generations; evolutionary economics; competition; price evolution; DRAM market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • D0 - Microeconomics - - General
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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