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How do self-fulfilling prophecies affect financial ratings? An experimental study

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  • Celjo-Hörhager, Sanela
  • Niessen, Alexandra

Abstract

In this experimental study we examine the impact of self-fulfilling prophecies on financial ratings. According to theoretical models like Kuhner (2001), rating agencies are more likely to reveal their private information if their rating can not become self-fulfilling from an ex-post point of view. In our experiment we use two settings in which ratings differ with respect to the degree of their self-fulfilling impact. In connection with a strong self-fulfilling impact of ratings we indeed observe that agencies are more likely to assign ratings which are not in line with their private information. Our results support theoretical findings of Kuhner (2001). However, the pathological equilibrium predicted by the theoretical model does not emerge in our experiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Celjo-Hörhager, Sanela & Niessen, Alexandra, 2006. "How do self-fulfilling prophecies affect financial ratings? An experimental study," CFR Working Papers 06-13, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:0613
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Self-fulfilling Prophecies; Financial Ratings; Asymmetric Information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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