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Improving MCMC Using Efficient Importance Sampling

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  • Liesenfeld, Roman
  • Richard, Jean-François

Abstract

This paper develops a systematic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework based upon Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS) which can be used for the analysis of a wide range of econometric models involving integrals without an analytical solution. EIS is a simple, generic and yet accurate Monte-Carlo integration procedure based on sampling densities which are chosen to be global approximations to the integrand. By embedding EIS within MCMC procedures based on Metropolis-Hastings (MH) one can significantly improve their numerical properties, essentially by providing a fully automated selection of critical MCMC components such as auxiliary sampling densities, normalizing constants and starting values. The potential of this integrated MCMC- EIS approach is illustrated with simple univariate integration problems and with the Bayesian posterior analysis of stochastic volatility models and stationary autoregressive processes. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2006,05.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:4349

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Related research

Keywords: Autoregressive models; Bayesian posterior analysis; Dynamic latent variables; Gibbs sampling; Metropolis Hastings; Stochastic volatility;

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References

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  1. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-39, November.
  2. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1994. "Bayes inference in regression models with ARMA (p, q) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 183-206.
  3. Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2006. "Classical and Bayesian Analysis of Univariate and Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 25(2-3), pages 335-360.
  4. BAUWENS, Luc & HAUTSCH, Nikolaus, 2003. "Dynamic latent factor models for intensity processes," CORE Discussion Papers 2003103, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  5. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  6. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers 3., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  7. Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January.
  8. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  9. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
  10. Luc Bauwens & Nikolaus Hautsch, 2006. "Stochastic Conditional Intensity Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(3), pages 450-493.
  11. Liesenfeld, Roman & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2003. "Estimation of Dynamic Bivariate Mixture Models: Comments on Watanabe (2000)," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 570-76, October.
  12. John Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  13. Richard, Jean-Francois & Zhang, Wei, 2007. "Efficient high-dimensional importance sampling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1385-1411, December.
  14. Liesenfeld, Roman & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2003. "Univariate and multivariate stochastic volatility models: estimation and diagnostics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 505-531, September.
  15. Chib, Siddhartha & Nardari, Federico & Shephard, Neil, 2002. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 281-316, June.
  16. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Testing the Assumptions Behind the Use of Importance Sampling," Economics Papers 2002-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  17. Sandmann, Gleb & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1998. "Estimation of stochastic volatility models via Monte Carlo maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 271-301, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Naylor, J.C. & Tremayne, A.R. & Marriott, J.M., 2010. "Exploratory data analysis and model criticism with posterior plots," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2707-2720, November.
  2. Bauwens, L. & Galli, F., 2009. "Efficient importance sampling for ML estimation of SCD models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1974-1992, April.
  3. Pastorello, S. & Rossi, E., 2010. "Efficient importance sampling maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic differential equations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2753-2762, November.

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