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Efficient importance sampling for ML estimation of SCD models

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  • Luc, BAUWENS

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Department of Economics)

  • Fausto Galli

    (Swiss Finance Institute of Lugano)

Abstract

The evaluation of the likelihood function of the stochastic conditional duration model requires to compute an integral that has the dimension of the sample size. We apply the efficient importance sampling method for computing this integral. We compare EIS-based ML estimation with QML estimation based on the Kalman filter. We find that EIS-ML estimation is more precise statistically, at a cost of an acceptable loss of quickness of computations. We illustrate this with simulated and real data. We show also that the EIS-ML method is easy to apply to extensions of the SCD model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques in its series Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) with number 2007032.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvec:2007032

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Keywords: Stochastic conditional duration; importance sampling;

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References

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  1. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  2. Liesenfeld, Roman & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2003. "Univariate and multivariate stochastic volatility models: estimation and diagnostics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 505-531, September.
  3. Jung, Robert C. & Kukuk, Martin & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2006. "Time series of count data: modeling, estimation and diagnostics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2350-2364, December.
  4. BAUWENS, Luc & VEREDAS, David, 1999. "The stochastic conditional duration model: a latent factor model for the analysis of financial durations," CORE Discussion Papers 1999058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  5. Strickland, Chris M. & Forbes, Catherine S. & Martin, Gael M., 2006. "Bayesian analysis of the stochastic conditional duration model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2247-2267, May.
  6. BAUWENS, Luc & HAUTSCH, Nikolaus, . "Stochastic conditional intensity processes," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1937, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  7. Liesenfeld, Roman & Richard, Jean-François, 2006. "Improving MCMC Using Efficient Importance Sampling," Economics Working Papers 2006,05, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  8. Jean-Francois Richard, 2007. "Efficient High-Dimensional Importance Sampling," Working Papers 321, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2007.
  9. Rombouts, Jeroen V. K. & Bauwens, Luc, 2004. "Econometrics," Papers 2004,33, Humboldt-Universität Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
  10. Dingan Feng, 2004. "Stochastic Conditional Duration Models with "Leverage Effect" for Financial Transaction Data," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(3), pages 390-421.
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Cited by:
  1. Tore Selland KLEPPE & Jun YU & Hans J. SKAUG, 2009. "Stimulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous Time Stochastic Volatility Models," Working Papers 20-2009, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  2. Fok, D. & Paap, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2002. "Modeling dynamic effects of promotion on interpurchase times," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-37, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  3. Zhongxian Men & Tony S. Wirjanto & Adam W. Kolkiewicz, 2013. "Bayesian Inference of Multiscale Stochastic Conditional Duration Models," Working Paper Series 63_13, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  4. Andre A. Monteiro, 2009. "The econometrics of randomly spaced financial data: a survey," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws097924, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  5. Tony S. Wirjanto & Adam W. Kolkiewicz & Zhongxian Men, 2013. "Stochastic Conditional Duration Models with Mixture Processes," Working Paper Series 29_13, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  6. Kleppe, Tore Selland & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2011. "Efficient high-dimensional importance sampling in mixture frameworks," Economics Working Papers 2011,11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  7. Galli, Fausto, 2014. "Stochastic conditonal range, a latent variable model for financial volatility," MPRA Paper 54030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Zhongxian Men & Adam W. Kolkiewicz & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2013. "Bayesian Inference of Asymmetric Stochastic Conditional Duration Models," Working Paper Series 28_13, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  9. Pastorello, S. & Rossi, E., 2010. "Efficient importance sampling maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic differential equations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2753-2762, November.
  10. Galli, Fausto, 2014. "Stochastic conditonal range, a latent variable model for financial volatility," MPRA Paper 54841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Skaug, Hans J. & Yu, Jun, 2014. "A flexible and automated likelihood based framework for inference in stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 642-654.
  12. Maria Pacurar, 2008. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models In Finance: A Survey Of The Theoretical And Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 711-751, 09.

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