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Deciding between GARCH and stochastic volatility via strong decision rules

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  • PREMINGER, Arie
  • HAFNER, Christian M.

Abstract

The GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) models are two competing, well-known and often used models to explain the volatility of financial series. In this paper, we consider a closed form estimator for a stochastic volatility model and derive its asymptotic properties. We confirm our theoretical results by a simulation study. In addition, we propose a set of simple, strongly consistent decision rules to compare the ability of the GARCH and the SV model to fit the characteristic features observed in high frequency financial data such as high kurtosis and slowly decaying autocorrelation function of the squared observations. These rules are based on a number of moment conditions that is allowed to increase with sample size. We show that our selection procedure leads to choosing the best and simple model with probability one as the sample size increases. The finite sample size behaviour of our procedure is analyzed via simulations. Finally, we provide an application to stocks in the Dow Jones industrial average index.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2006042.

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Date of creation: 00 May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2006042

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Related research

Keywords: GARCH; stochastic volatility; model selection.;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011. "Volatility models," CORE Discussion Papers 2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Fung, Ka Wai Terence & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Chan, Kwok Ho, 2014. "The conditional equity premium, cross-sectional returns and stochastic volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 316-327.
  3. Fung, Ka Wai Terence & Demir, Ender & Zhou, Lu, 2014. "Capital Asset Pricing Model and Stochastic Volatility: A Case study of India," MPRA Paper 56180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Walter Krämer & Philip Mess, 2012. "Structural Change and Spurious Persistence in Stochastic Volatility," Ruhr Economic Papers 0310, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  5. Fung, Ka Wai Terence & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Chan, Kwok Ho, 2013. "The Conditional CAPM, Cross-Section Returns and Stochastic Volatility," MPRA Paper 52469, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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