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PAYG Pensions and Human Capital Accumulation: Some Unpleasant Arithmetic

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Author Info
Giam Pietro Cipriani ()
Miltiadis Makris

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Abstract

A large literature has studied the effects of PAYG systems on fertility, human capital and growth. We argue that the social security system may also interact with longevity when the latter is endogenously determined. We show that in such an environment, in a dynamically efficient economy PAYG pensions must be sufficiently low in order to ensure positive economic growth. Moreover, a transition to a funded social security system will promote growth, and can thereby take place by fully compensating the losers.

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File URL: http://www.child-centre.it/papers/child19_2009.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY in its series CHILD Working Papers with number wp19_09.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpc:wplist:wp19_09

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Related research
Keywords: Pensions; Human Capital; Growth; Endogenous Longevity;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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  1. Cipriani, Giam Pietro & Makris, Miltiadis, 2007. "Indeterminacy, intergenerational redistribution, endogenous longevity and human capital accumulation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 613-633, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Andersen, Torben M., 2008. "Increasing longevity and social security reforms--A legislative procedure approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 633-646, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 97-120, Summer.
    Other versions:
  4. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004. "The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1335-1357, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. PESTIEAU, Pierre & PONTHIéRE, GrŽgory & SATO, Motohiro, 2006. "Longevity and Pay-as-you-Go pensions," CORE Discussion Papers 2006054, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  6. Nils-Petter Lagerl–f, 2003. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 755-777, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Docquier, Frederic & Paddison, Oliver & Pestieau, Pierre, 2007. "Optimal accumulation in an endogenous growth setting with human capital," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 361-378, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," NBER Working Papers 11121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Cigno, Alessandro, 1992. "Children and Pensions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 175-83, August.
    Other versions:
  10. Rosati, Furio Camillo, 1996. "Social security in a non-altruistic model with uncertainty and endogenous fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 283-294, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Davies, James B. & Kuhn, Peter, 1992. "Social security, longevity, and moral hazard," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 91-106, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Cruz A. Echevarria & Amaia Iza, 2005. "Life Expectancy, Human Capital, Social Security and Growth," DFAEII Working Papers 200517, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, revised 16 Nov 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Tomas J. Philipson & Gary S. Becker, 1998. "Old-Age Longevity and Mortality-Contingent Claims," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 551-573, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004. "The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device," Discussion Papers in Economics 938, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Nishimura, Kazuo & Zhang, Junsen, 1992. "Pay-as-you-go public pensions with endogenous fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 239-258, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Cremer, Helmuth & Gahvari, Firouz & Pestieau, Pierre, 2006. "Pensions with endogenous and stochastic fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(12), pages 2303-2321, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Alders, Peter & Broer, D. Peter, 2005. "Ageing, fertility, and growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(5-6), pages 1075-1095, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Berthold U. Wigger, 1999. "Pay-as-you-go financed public pensions in a model of endogenous growth and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 625-640. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2002. "A model of longevity, fertility and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 187-204, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Poutvaara, Panu, 2007. "Social security incentives, human capital investment and mobility of labor," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(7-8), pages 1299-1325, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2005. "Human Capital Formation, Life Expectancy, and the Process of Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1653-1672, December. [Downloadable!]
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