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The Evolution of Tax Evasion in the Czech Republic: A Markov Chain Analysis

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Author Info
Jan Hanousek (Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education-Economics Institute)
Filip Palda (École nationale d'administration publique at Montreal)

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Abstract

We use a dataset of 1062 individuals from the Czech Republic to forecast the evolution of tax evasion in that country. We ask each respondent how intensely (never, sometimes, often) he evaded taxes in 1995, 1999, and 2000, to calculate probabilities the average individual will move between these categories of evasion in any given year. These "trasition" probabilities allow us to predict a rising tide of tax evasion in the next decade. We estimate the reduced form parameters which determine evasion and suggest how government might influence these parameters to prevent the Czech Republic from bogging down in a permanent mire of tax evasion. (JEL Codes : H26, H43, K42, O17)

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Public Economics with number 0205002.

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Date of creation: 09 May 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwppe:0205002

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Related research
Keywords: Tax evasion transition economies dynamic modelling Czech Republic

Find related papers by JEL classification:
H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion
H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
O17 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Jung, Young H. & Snow, Arthur & Trandel, Gregory A., 1994. "Tax evasion and the size of the underground economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 391-402, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Watson, Harry, 1985. "Tax evasion and labor markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 231-246, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Cremer, Helmuth & Gahvari, Firouz, 1996. "Tax evasion and the optimum general income tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 235-249, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jan Hanousek & Filip Palda, 2002. "Why People Evade Taxes in the Czech and Slovak Republics: A Tale of Twins," Public Economics 0205003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fortin, Bernard & Lacroix, Guy & Montmarquette, Claude, 2000. "Are Underground Workers More Likely to be Underground Consumers?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(466), pages 838-60, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Feige, Edgar L & McGee, Robert T, 1983. " Sweden's Laffer Curve: Taxation and the Unobserved Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 85(4), pages 499-519.
    Other versions:
  7. repec:att:wimass:199610 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Reinganum, Jennifer F & Wilde, Louis L, 1991. "Equilibrium Enforcement and Compliance in the Presence of Tax Practitioners," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 163-81, Spring.
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  9. Eduardo M.R.A. Engel & James R. Hines, Jr., 1999. "Understanding Tax Evasion Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 6903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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This page was last updated on 2008-8-28.

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