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Bond Premium in Turkey

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Author Info
Erdem Basci (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)
Mehmet Fatih Ekinci (University of Houston)

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Abstract

In this paper we examine the difference between T-Bill returns and common stock returns in Turkey. We observe that there is a bond premium in Turkey unlike the equity premia in developed countries. As an attempt to explain this surprising observation, we incorporate inflation risk and default risk to the Mehra and Presscott (1985) dynamic asset pricing model. Calibration with reasonable parameter values indicate that the inflation risk alone is not sufficient to explain the observed bond premium. However by allowing for the presence of a perceived default probability, we can explain the observed bond premium on Turkish T-Bills over Turkish common stocks.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0409007.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 06 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0409007

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 27
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: Equity Premium Puzzle; Default Risk; Inflation Risk; Asset Pricing; Bond Premium.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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  1. Sylla, Richard & Wallis, John Joseph, 1998. "The anatomy of sovereign debt crises: Lessons from the American state defaults of the 1840s," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 267-293, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Hernandez-Trillo, Fausto, 1995. "A model-based estimation of the probability of default in sovereign credit markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 163-179, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Campbell, John Y., 1999. "Asset prices, consumption, and the business cycle," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 19, pages 1231-1303 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ely, David P. & Robinson, Kenneth J., 1997. "Are stocks a hedge against inflation? International evidence using a long-run approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 141-167, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Drudi, Francesco & Giordano, Raffaela, 2000. "Default risk and optimal debt management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 861-891, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Fisher, Stephen J, 1994. "Asset Trading, Transaction Costs and the Equity Premium," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S71-94, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Benartzi, Shlomo & Thaler, Richard H, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Jun Liu, 2000. "Why Stocks May Disappoint," NBER Working Papers 7783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Gallagher, Liam A. & Taylor, Mark P., 2002. "The stock return-inflation puzzle revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 147-156, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Telmer, Chris I, 1993. " Asset-Pricing Puzzles and Incomplete Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1803-32, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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