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What Makes Balance Sheet Effects Detrimental For The Country Risk Premium?

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  • ALICIA GARCIA HERRERO

    (BANCO DE ESPAÑA)

  • JUAN CARLOS BERGANZA

    (BANCO DE ESPAÑA)

Abstract

This paper builds upon the empirical literature on the macroeconomic impact of real exchange rate depreciations for a sample of 27 emerging economies. We find that real exchange rate depreciations tend to increase a country’s risk premium. This effect is neither linear nor symmetric: large real exchange depreciations are much more detrimental and real appreciations do not seem to reduce the risk premium. We also show that the main channels for the real exchange rate to affect country risk are external and domestic balance sheet effects, stemming from the sudden increase in the stock of external or domestic dollar-denominated debt, respectively. This is particularly the case in the countries with the largest financial imperfections. Competitiveness is not an important enough factor to outweigh this negative effect. Finally, fixed exchange rate regimes tend to amplify balance sheet effects, beyond the extent of real depreciation. The data indicates that it could be due to a larger accumulation of external debt under fixed regimes.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/if/papers/0408/0408002.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0408002.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 06 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0408002

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 32
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: balance sheet effects; financial accelerator theories; exchange rate regime;

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References

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Addicted to Dollars," NBER Working Papers 10015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  3. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2002. "Corporate dollar debt and depreciations: much ado about nothing?," Working Papers 02-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  4. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1999. "Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," NBER Working Papers 9095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2001. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  8. De Nicolo, Gianni & Honohan, Patrick & Ize, Alain, 2003. "Dollarization of the banking system : good or bad?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3116, The World Bank.
  9. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2005. "Financial Dollarisation: Evaluating The Consequences," Business School Working Papers findollarisation, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  10. Sebastian Edwards, 1985. "Are Devaluations Contractionary?," NBER Working Papers 1676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Barbara Fritz & Laurissa Mühlich, 2006. "Regional Monetary Integration among Developing Countries: New Opportunities for Macroeconomic Stability beyond the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas?," GIGA Working Paper Series 38, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
  2. Barry Eichengreen, 2006. "Insurance Underwriter or Financial Development Fund: What Role for Reserve Pooling in Latin America?," NBER Working Papers 12451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, 2004. "FINANCIAL DOLLARIZATION: Evaluating the consequences," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 184, Econometric Society.
  4. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2004. "Dollars, Debt and the IFIs: Dedollarizing Multilateral Lending," Business School Working Papers dedollmultlending, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  5. Kevin Cowan & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Sovereign Debt In The Americas: New Data and Stylized Facts," Business School Working Papers 2006-09, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  6. Adela Luque, 2005. "Skill mix and technology in Spain: evidence from firm level data," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0513, Banco de Espa�a.

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